Purdue Basketball: Can Nojel Eastern lead the offense for 2019-20 season?

Despite losing some contributors, Purdue Basketball is projected to be among the best teams in the nation. Can Nojel Eastern take a significant step forward?

After falling in heartbreaking fashion to Virginia in the Elite 8 last season and losing major contributors in Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline, it might seem as if Purdue Basketball missed a “once in 20 years” chance to reach its first Final 4 since 1980. Early preseason prognostications, however, suggest the Boilermakers might get another shot this season.

(Credit to KenPom, Barttorvik, sports-reference and hoops-math for statistics/charts and Big Ten Network for GIFS)

Analytics sites KenPom and Barttorvik both have Purdue ranked 7th in the preseason (5th offense/35th defense, 9th offense/6th defense respectively). The preseason AP Poll is a little less generous at 23rd, but there still seems to be plenty of reason for optimism. If the Boilermakers are going to live up to the hype, however, junior Nojel Eastern will need to take a significant step forward.

Nojel Eastern: All-around player

The 6-6 junior guard did a little bit of everything for the Boilermakers last season, from scoring to rebounding to playmaking to defending. He ranked 4th on the team in scoring, 3rd in assists, 1st in rebounding and 2nd in steals.

Only 17 players last season posted the following statistical profile (per sports reference): total rebound percentage >= 11.5, assist percentage >= 15.6, steal percentage >= 2.3 AND block percentage >= 1.5. 

Defense is arguably his strength, where his combination of size, strength (220 pounds) and mobility have proved valuable.  Although a stout defender against perimeter players, Eastern’s rebounding prowess (5.5 per game) illustrates his ability to contribute on the interior as well. These contributions were recognized, as Eastern was named to the Big Ten’s All-Defensive Team last season.

Increased offensive responsibilities

With the departures of Edwards and Cline, Eastern will be asked to be the team’s primary playmaker/ball-handler. The former 4-star recruit (84th per ESPN) has shown flashes of this ability in the last two seasons, but there will be a significant increase in his responsibilities nevertheless.

In terms of playmaking, Eastern posted a solid 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio last season (2nd on team), including 20 games with one or fewer turnovers. The lefty’s ball-handling and strength enable him to get to the basket, draw attention and find open teammates.

The Chicago native wasn’t asked to do too much as a scorer last season (5.7 shots per game), but he’ll have to pick up the slack. As mentioned with regards to his playmaking, he’s at his best when he’s getting to the basket. Eastern attempted 68.9% of his shots at the rim last season (made 61.3%), and 81.6% came near the basket (see below chart).

Shooting Progress?

He was particularly good at getting to the line, posting the 155th best free throw rate in the nation (3rd in Big Ten in conference play). Crucially, he’s starting to make teams pay when they send him to the charity stripe. After only shooting 41.7% his freshmen season, Eastern boosted this up to 65.0% last year. There’s reason to expect an even better performance this season; after starting only 3-12 from the line in 2018-19, he made 62 of his last 88 attempts (70.5%).

This improvement in foul shooting could bode well for an improved jump shot as well. Eastern made no 3-pointers last season on only four attempts (3-9 freshman season) and hasn’t shown many signs of a midrange jumper either. 29.1% of his shots were classified as “2-point jumpers” per hoops-math, with Eastern making only 25.0%.

The junior has reportedly worked on his shot, and there is some optimism he could be improved this season. But if not, the junior can still make plenty of contributions as a “Ben Simmons” type player (point guard with no jump shot).

Having a “non-shooting guard” on the floor can become quite problematic, especially when that player is positioned off-the-ball; defenders can sag off the player and clog up the offense. With Eastern expected to do a lot of the ball-handling, however, this shouldn’t be too significant of an issue. Even when he is off-the-ball, Eastern might be able to find ways to attack the defense when they provide him a lot of space.

Conclusion

Availability has been an under-the-radar strength of Eastern’s. He started 35/36 games last season and hasn’t missed a game in his college career. He’ll likely be asked to play more than the 28.2 minutes per game he did last season, but the junior should be ready for this.

Eastern got valuable NCAA Tournament experience last season during Purdue’s Elite 8 run, and he seems primed to emerge in 2019-20 (ranked 46th overall player per Three Man Weave). A lack of a jumper has limited NBA Draft buzz, but if he flashes a jumper this season, Eastern has plenty of tools that would make him an attractive prospect. If he lives up to preseason expectations, the Boilermakers should be well-positioned for a tournament run in March.