UNC Basketball: Brandon Robinson can handle a starting role in 2019-20

Experience & Offensive Efficiency

There is evidence that backs up the case for Robinson’s spot as the starting two-guard (or small-forward, depending on who’s alongside him) that goes beyond him merely being more familiar with the offensive and defensive schemes that the Tar Heels incorporate.

Of course, a glance at Robinson’s stats through 106 career games likely leaves one wondering why a senior who’s never cracked four points per game — who’s going up against Pierce, who’s averaged over 14 points over the past two seasons, and Keeling, who’s never dipped below 17 points per game — should ever start ahead of two scorers with established pedigree. But raw counting stats don’t provide the full picture, nor does a complete lack of film (more on that later).

Robinson’s small minutes share was not due to a lack of talent, but an abundance of talent ahead of him. Quite simply, his impact was unheralded and often unrecognized, especially as a junior whose confidence and production reached new heights.

Last year for the Tar Heels, Robinson posted a career-highs in points per game (3.4), rebounds per game (1.6), assists per game (1.4), three-pointers made (23), and three-point percentage (.460), all while playing 11.9 minutes per game off the bench. Such numbers, when extrapolated over 40 minutes — 15.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 2.9 three-pointers — point toward how productive and well-rounded the reserve was when he was on the court.

And, when diving through advanced stats from UNC’s main rotation, Robinson shined. He ranked second on the team in on-court offensive rating (129.1) behind Cameron Johnson (131.2) and finished tied with Coby White for third in Box Plus/Minus (8.1 BPM), trailing only Johnson (13.0) and Garrison Brooks (8.7).

A potent perimeter marksman, albeit on low volume, Robinson found value as an off-guard capable of spotting up along the perimeter, firing long-range bombs off spot-ups (93rd percentile per Synergy Sports) or off screens (91st percentile) at an impeccable clip. He was lethal off the catch in half-court situations (83rd percentile), and despite a dangerously small sample (14 possessions), he flashed viability off the bounce, too, drilling 8-of-14 (57.1%, 99th percentile) of his half-court off-the-dribble attempts.

Brandon Robinson was a picture-perfect example of efficiency as a shooter last year, earning a respected reputation as a catch-and-shoot threat who defenses had to key in on, lest they get burnt. This year, should he start, he’ll see an uptick in those chances, as well as a few pull-up opportunities here and there, but his real impact on the offensive end isn’t from his shooting.

It’s from his passing.