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Utah State vs. LSU: 2019-20 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

By Charlie DiSturco

COLUMBUS, OHIO - MARCH 22: The bench celebrates as Sam Merrill #5 of the Utah State Aggies looks on as they play against the Washington Huskies during the second half of the game in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Nationwide Arena on March 22, 2019 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OHIO - MARCH 22: The bench celebrates as Sam Merrill #5 of the Utah State Aggies looks on as they play against the Washington Huskies during the second half of the game in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Nationwide Arena on March 22, 2019 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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No. 15 Utah State’s first real test of the season comes against the LSU Tigers on a neutral court. Can the mid-major heavyweight knock off a turnover-prone LSU team that recently lost to VCU just over a week ago?

TV Schedule: Friday, November 22, 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

Arena: Montego Bay Convention Centre

Mid-major heavyweight Utah State and defending SEC regular-season champions LSU (3-1) will square off in the Jamaica Classic on Friday night. It’s the first test in nonconference play for a veteran Utah State (5-0) squad that has reinvented itself in Craig Smith‘s two years as head coach. The No. 15 Aggies enter this matchup with four straight blowout wins of at least 27 points or more, while LSU has knocked off Nicholls State and UMBC since its 84-82 loss to VCU.

USU remains without star sophomore Neemias Queta, who made the trip with the team to Jamaica. His status remains unclear, though it’d be a surprise for the Mountain West Freshman of the Year to play against LSU.

The Aggies sport five players in double figures including leader Sam Merrill. The senior averages 17.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game all while shooting 54.5 percent shot from 3. Utah State’s performance goes hand in hand with Merrill, who will be relied on heavily. Forward Justin Bean has been a bright spot and is experiencing a breakout sophomore campaign, averaging 13.2 points and a team-high 11 rebounds per game.

Like last season, Utah State does everything well. They can shoot the ball well, crash the boards and create second-chance opportunities and rarely turn the ball over. USU is the 11th tallest team in the country and ranks ninth in offensive rebounding percentage — 38.8 percent — per Kenpom.com. It’s an area to exploit a smaller LSU team (81st in country, 163rd in allowing opponents to retain offensive rebounds.

Defensively, the Aggies force opponents to work for their shots. Rarely will there be miscues and opponents sport a 35.6 2-point percentage, fourth in the entire NCAA, per Kenpom. It’s an area where LSU does well, though, shooting 60 percent on 2-point field goals.

The Tigers offense is a high-powered one, and is efficient, too. They crash the boards hard, edging out Utah State by 0.5 percent on offensive rebounding percentage, and get great looks from inside the paint. However, the Tigers do struggle shooting from beyond the arc — 261st in the country on 28.6 percent shooting — an area that Utah State will likely key on early.

LSU is led by senior guard Skyler Mays. He’s been the most consistent on both sides of the floor, averaging 17 points on 53.2 percent shooting, 6.8 rebounds, three assists and 2.5 steals per game. The Tigers are a physical team and like Utah State, have five players that average double figures. They also have four players with at least 6.8 rebounds per game.

Arguably the biggest concern for LSU, and what could prove the difference in the game, is how well the Tigers guards can limit their turnovers. In their only loss this season, the Tigers turned the ball over 26 times, including a combined 20 from Skylar Mays, Trendon Watford and Javonte Smart. It was ultimately the dagger in an otherwise solid performance.

Utah State ranks in the top 100 at forcing turnovers, but LSU comes in at 343rd among all teams, per Kenpom. That’s bottom 10 numbers, turning the ball over on 26.8 percent of possessions. If that’s the case on Friday night, USU will take advantage just like its fellow mid-major powerhouse, VCU.

This game will be among the most entertaining for Friday night’s slate. Both teams love to push the tempo and the total number should end up around the high 140s. While Utah State sports the better numbers, they have not played a competitive team like LSU this season.

What’s interesting to note is that the opening line favors Utah State (-1), though the line has changed to LSU being favored by -1.5. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the edge to LSU, saying the Tigers have a 52.6 percent chance at taking home the win. Kenpom agrees, giving LSU a 54 percent chance.

Next. Key storylines for 2019 non-conference tournaments. dark

While both teams are effective from inside the paint and crash the boards as well as anyone in college basketball, LSU’s turnover problems are a major red flag early on. They’ve been sluggish out of the gate while Utah State has done everything right in the 2019-20 season. It’ll be a close matchup but it’s one where the Aggies just seem primed to make a statement and establish itself as a mid-major powerhouse yet again.

Prediction: Utah State 77 — LSU 73