Virginia Basketball: How a rule change unleashed Cavaliers best defense

Virginia Basketball’s defense is back to giving opposing offenses fits this season. A new rule change could make it more dominant than ever.

There’s plenty of uncertainty heading into every season, but college basketball fans can always count on one thing: Tony Bennett’s Virginia Basketball squad will have an elite defense.

(Credit to KenPom for statistics (updated as of 12/1) and ACC Digital Network for GIF)

Since the 2013-14 season, the Cavaliers‘ defense has only finished outside the top five once per KenPom (7th in 2015-16). The brilliantly executed “pack line” defense has been well documented over the years, and the “Virginia is amazing at defense” narrative is almost “old news” at this point. This season, however, the Cavaliers might have their best defense ever.

Through seven games, 5th-ranked Virginia has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 78.9, a number that would not only be the program’s best ever but the best of any team in KenPom’s database. Vermont is the only team to break the 50-point mark against the Cavaliers thus far (scored 55).

It’s still early on in the season, but there’s reason to believe this year’s defense could be extra special. There was some speculation that Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy leaving for the NBA could help the defense, as both were better on the offensive end of the floor. The bigger factor, however, could be a new rule change instituted this season.

Longer 3-Point Line

Since the NCAA decided to move back the 3-point line this offseason, there’s been plenty of speculation about how the change could impact the sport. While the long-term implications remain unclear, offenses have undeniably struggled a bit to start the season.

Overall offensive efficiency is down, with teams taking slightly fewer threes and most notably, making a worse percentage compared to prior seasons. The drop-off (34.4% to 33.0%) might not seem significant on the surface, but 33.0% would be the worst percentage since the 3-pointer came to the college game prior to the 1986-87 season (*3-point line distance has varied).

If 3-point percentages and offense as a whole remain down this season, this should make ALL defenses look better. Due to Virginia’s specific defensive scheme, however, it should especially benefit from the rule change.

How Rule Change Helps The Cavaliers

The Cavaliers’ pack-line defense makes it very difficult for opponents to score inside the arc (22nd, 3rd, 27th in 2-point defense over the last three seasons). As a result, its opponents often have to resort to taking a significant percentage of their shots beyond the 3-point line.

So far this season, no team is allowing long-range attempts at a higher rate than the Cavaliers. Notably, the 53.0% attempt percentage is even significantly higher than the program’s “3-point attempt heavy defenses” of seasons past. Even as college basketball as a whole is taking fewer threes, Virginia is forcing its opponents even more than it has historically.

If opponents are taking even more threes against Virginia and making less of them due partially to the longer 3-point line, then why can’t this be Virginia’s best defense ever?

The Exception

There’s been plenty of research highlighting the “randomness” of 3-point percentage defense (teams have limited control over percent of threes opponents make). So although most 3-point defenses should generally improve this season due to the rule change, isn’t there a chance the Cavaliers get “unlucky” and have its opponents shoot well from long-range?

This is a risk for most “3-point attempt heavy defenses,” and is part of why many coaches strive to limit 3-point attempts. Virginia, however, has been an exception to the rule, as its defensive 3-point percentage has been consistently great, ranking 9th this season (3rd, 9th, 30th over three prior seasons).

How have they bucked the norm? As noted, when Virginia’s opponents struggle to score inside the arc, they end up taking a lot of 3-pointers. Since they “have no choice” but to shoot them, a lot of these attempts end up not being very high quality (leading to low shooting percentages).

Additionally, although Tony Bennett’s defenses focus on protecting the interior, they’re also adept at rotating to close out shooters.

The combination of Tony Bennett’s coaching, the roster composition, and the team’s stingy 3-point defense was already bound to make Virginia’s defense elite this season. With the longer 3-point line contributing to teams shooting worse from downtown, this could be the Cavaliers’ best defense ever.