Take advantage of opportunities beyond the arc
Villanova has been elite offensively this season, but they have struggled to reach the same level of efficiency on defense. Their main issue has been the inability to defend the three-point line. Villanova is allowing its opponents to shoot 35.1% from deep, 254th in the nation.
This weakness was on full display for the Wildcats earlier this year in a loss to Baylor. The Bears connected on 11 of 19 attempts from long-range, including some huge shots down the stretch to pull away.
Overall, the Villanova defense ranks 171st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. There will be opportunities for the Kansas offense all over the floor, but the three-point shot will surely be a key if Kansas is able to outduel the Wildcats. Kansas loves to run their offense through their post players, and the presence of Azibuike down low should cause the defense to collapse, leaving shooters open.
So far this season, Kansas has been a decent three-point shooting team, shooting 36.6%, but it has not been a major focus of the offense. Kansas shoots 32.8% of their shots from beyond the arc, well below the NCAA average of 37.7%. With the number of open looks that Villanova is likely to give up, Kansas should be looking to take a higher number of three-point shots in this matchup.
Sophomore wing Ochai Agbaji is probably Kansas’ best perimeter shooter. He is shooting 40% from downtown on the season, and he has been on a bit of a roll since the beginning of December. Agabaji scored 20 against Colorado earlier in the month, shooting 4-6 from downtown, and he followed up that performance by shooting 5-8 from three in his next game against Milwaukee.
Don’t expect Kansas to change their identity and stop feeding their post players, but they should take advantage of what the defense gives them. Though they aren’t a prolific three-point shooting team, they have some quality shooters. If they are able to shoot a high percentage from three-point range, Villanova will struggle to stop the Kansas offense.