San Diego State vs. Utah: 2019-20 college basketball preview, TV schedule

Unbeaten San Diego State takes on a Utah team coming off a major upset. Which team has the edge in this matchup?

TV Schedule: Saturday, December 21, 6:30 PM ET on Pac-12 Network

Arena: Staples Center

One of just four remaining undefeated teams left in college basketball, mid-major heavyweight San Diego State will take on a red-hot Utah team fresh off an upset of No. 6 Kentucky. The two teams will battle inside the Staples Center on Saturday night. San Diego State (11-0) has taken care of BYU on the road, dominated Creighton and even boasts a double-digit win over Iowa. Meanwhile, Utah (9-2) has won five straight that includes an overtime win over BYU and, most recently, the upset over the Wildcats.

The San Diego State Report:

This San Diego State team has an opportunity to finish the season undefeated as Kenpom.com predicts just one loss the rest of the way (on the road at Utah State). Four Aztecs average double figures and boast a deep lineup that features eight players with 16-plus minutes per game.

At the top of the depth chart is point guard Malachi Flynn who averages 15.5 points, 5.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. The junior shoots 43 percent from the floor — and 43 percent from deep — and takes 27.2 percent of all SDSU shots when on the floor. He and forward Matt Mitchell have become the two leading scorers for the Aztecs, with the latter averaging 11.5 points on 45.2 percent shooting from 3.

As a whole, San Diego State ranks 19th in the country in 3-point percentage, shooting 39.4 percent, per Kenpom. They crash the offensive glass hard and create plenty of second-chance opportunities — 33.4 percent of missed shots were corralled by SDSU — and turn the ball over just 16.3 percent of the time. Those statistics rank 50th and 24th in the country, respectively.

But this is a veteran squad that not only shoots well and run up the score but are arguably better on the defensive end of the ball.

The Aztecs rank 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to a 26.9-percent clip from beyond the arc (14th among all NCAA teams), per Kenpom. Utah on the other hand, shoots 35.4 percent from 3, a stark 8.5-percent difference. They defend inside the paint and crash the defensive glass well while also forcing turnovers.

There isn’t much where San Diego State struggles. Its biggest flaw comes from its offense inside the arc, where SDSU shoots 48.8 percent. That ranks in the bottom half in the NCAA.

The Utah Report:

Like the Aztecs, Utah also has four scorers in double figures, with seven players averaging 17-plus minutes per game. Their star is forward Timmy Allen, who has taken a significant step forward in his sophomore season.

Allen averages 21 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, with all of his offense coming from inside the arc. He takes 29.9 percent of shots when on the floor and constantly forces his way to the free-throw line. The 6-foot-6 forward draws 7.1 fouls per 40 minutes, 21st among all players in the NCAA.

Behind Allen is Both Gach, Rylan Jones and Riley Battin. All three average just over 10 points per game with Jones shooting a lights-out 50 percent from 3. Despite being a freshman, Jones has stepped up in a gigantic way, facilitating the offense to the tune of 5.3 assists per game.

The Utes are a solid 3-point shooting squad, but their dominance comes inside the paint, shooting 59.5 percent on 2-point field goals. That’s fourth in the entire country and the area they’ll look to exploit against SDSU.

Defensively, Utah isn’t the most dominant. They rank 156th in adjusted defensive efficiency and defend inside the paint well — but there’s an opportunity to get burned from 3. In the surprise loss against Coastal Carolina, the Chanticleers shot better from beyond the arc than they did from inside. The Utes won’t force a ton of turnovers — 278th in the country on 17.6 percent of opposing possessions — rather force you to create your own shot, often coming from 3.

Who wins?

This is an interesting game because Utah is fresh off an upset and this game screams let-down spot. The Utes can turn it on at any moment and are 4-0 against teams ranked inside Kenpom’s Top 100. But there are moments where the same squad that has those resume-building wins will come out flat and lose to what are seen as free wins — think No. 177 Coastal Carolina or No. 215 Tulane.

Meanwhile, for San Diego State, outside of a close finish against San Jose State, the Aztecs have consistently taken care of business — most of the time winning by double digits. Being just one of four undefeated teams remaining, there’s a target on SDSU’s back. Utah poses as the biggest threat until Utah State on Jan. 4.

Expect San Diego State to try and attack from beyond the arc while Utah pounds the ball inside the paint. Both teams don’t push tempo but they don’t sit back the entire shot clock either. This game should end up in the 130s, flashing some offensive spurts but defense paving the way.

Currently, Kenpom gives San Diego State a 73 percent chance at taking home the win on Saturday night, while ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives SDSU a 79.4 percent chance.

While both teams have started the season off great offensively, there’s a clear edge in the Aztecs’ defensive capabilities. If SDSU builds an early lead as expected, Utah will be forced to apply pressure and force turnovers — where they struggle. This game should be relatively close but San Diego State will eventually pull away and live to see another day in their quest to stay undefeated.

Prediction: San Diego State 72 — Utah 63