NCAA Basketball: Which preseason top teams will make Elite 8 of 2019-20?

The preseason AP Poll has historically been fairly predictive of NCAA Tournament success. Could this crazy NCAA Basketball season be the outlier?

In what has seemingly become an annual affair, there’s been talk recently about NCAA Basketball being “as crazy as ever.” This season, however, these “hot takes” may have some validity. When Kansas reached the top of the most recent AP Poll, it marked the first time there have been five different No. 1’s before New Year’s Day. Throw in upset losses like Duke to Stephen F. Austin and Kentucky to Evansville, and chaos has indeed reigned.

(Credit to KenPom for tournament data)

But as the season progresses, will things truly be much more unpredictable than seasons prior? It’s interesting to consider this through the lens of the preseason AP Poll. Historically, the preseason rankings have had predictive value when it comes to forecasting NCAA Tournament success (see here, here and here).

Going back to the 2001-02 season, 67/136 (49.3%) of teams ranked in the top 8 of the preseason poll have advanced to at least the Elite 8. In fact, since 2011-12, there’s only been one season in which at least four of the preseason top 8 haven’t reached the Elite 8 (2017-18, three teams).

So essentially, bracketologists have been able to count on roughly half of the preseason top 8 making the Elite 8 in any individual season. Unsurprisingly, things get even more predictive if one looks at the final AP Poll prior to the tournament, where 74/136 (54%) of the top 8 teams have made the Elite 8. If one “combines” preseason and pre-tournament rankings, the results get even stronger. Among teams that were both top ten in the preseason AND top ten in KenPom prior to the start of the tournament, 60/91 (65.9%) made the Elite 8.

Given that it incorporates no actual game data, the fact that preseason polls have been as predictive as they have is pretty noteworthy. Based on the historical results, one should expect roughly four of this season’s preseason top eight to make the Elite 8 this season. Although college basketball has been unpredictable, will it really buck this trend?

Despite all the upsets, six of the top eight teams in the preseason poll are still ranked in the top eight, with only Michigan State and Florida dropping to 15th and unranked respectively. While both the Spartans and Gators have been disappointing, it wouldn’t be inconceivable if one or both of these teams turned things around and made real noise in March. I wouldn’t bet on it, however.

Following Maryland’s road loss to Seton Hall and Kentucky falling to Utah in Las Vegas, these two teams are likely to drop out of the top 8 in the next AP Poll. With plenty of talent on both rosters, however, it seems far too early to write off either team as “Elite 8 contenders.”

If one rules out Michigan State and Florida, history suggests at least four of Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Louisville, Maryland and Gonzaga will reach the Elite 8. It’s hard to have too much confidence in any of them, but eight teams will inevitably reach the Elite 8, right?. Why can’t half of them come from this group?

It’s easy to overreact to early-season losses, particularly from teams that were highly ranked in the preseason. In the long run, however, history suggests one can bank on a lot of these squads making it far in March. Perhaps this will be the season things TRULY get crazy, however, in which case history will get thrown out the window.