UNC Basketball has had a rough start to the season thus far. Have the teams they’ve lost to received too much credit nationally?
Coming into the season ranked 9th in the AP Poll, expectations were fairly high for Roy Williams’ squad. With a tough schedule to start the season (6th-toughest per KenPom), both UNC Basketball (and its opponents) surely anticipated the chance to score some high-quality wins.
This hasn’t exactly come to pass. After taking losses to Michigan (neutral, 64-73), Ohio State (home, 49-74), Virginia (away, 56-47) and Wofford (home, 68-64), things have taken a turn for the worse. The Tar Heels were without Cole Anthony in the most recent Wofford loss (and will continue to be without him for 4-6 weeks), but the team’s play has been subpar with him as well. It managed to pull off an impressive victory against Oregon in the Bahamas and got back in the win column this against UCLA this past weekend, but the room for optimism seems limited.
Overrated Opponents?
It’s very possible that even with Anthony, North Carolina is simply not that good this season. It’s unclear, however, whether this has been fully internalized when it comes to evaluating how good its opponents currently are. When each of Michigan, Ohio State and Virginia took down the Tar Heels, it was still considered an impressive-to-very impressive win. This has positively impacted the perceptions of each of these teams, but these may need to be adjusted.
Ohio State
First, consider Ohio State, the 2nd-ranked team in the country. Maybe there are no “great” teams in college basketball, but there are surely some “really good” teams right? Despite taking a road loss at Minnesota, the Ohio State Buckeyes have been considered by many to be the “king” of these teams. This is fair because the Buckeyes have a super impressive resume thus far…right? It definitely feels that way.
At some point this season, Ohio State’s victories over Cincinnati, Villanova, North Carolina, Penn State and most recently Kentucky have all been considered “impressive” (definition of “impressive” is obviously very subjective). What about now? Cincinnati (7-5) is underachieving, the aforementioned Tar Heels are struggling, both the Villanova and Penn State victories came at home, and Kentucky was coming off a loss to Utah (and lost to Evansville earlier this season).
Of course, the combination of all these victories is still very notable, and the Buckeyes’ strong margins of victory should be taken into account as well. Based strictly on wins and losses, however, is their resume that impressive? Even though the Villanova win is tough to nitpick, it’s worth emphasizing how much easier it is to win at home. Despite home-court advantage perhaps being on the decline a bit, Ken Pomeroy explained its importance back in 2016.
"“Beating the 90th-ranked team on the road is about as difficult as beating the 50th-best team on a neutral floor, which is roughly as difficult as beating the 20th-best team on one’s home floor. (The exact relationship can vary by season).”"
Ohio State may very well be the best team in the nation, but it’s worth taking a step back and exploring the impressiveness (or relative lack thereof) of the team’s resume. The beat-down of the Tar Heels seems to be the game that initially catapulted Ohio State to “best team in the country” status, but as discussed, this victory probably isn’t as impressive as it initially appeared.
Michigan
Next, let’s turn to No. 11 Michigan. At some point this season, Michigan’s victories over Creighton, Iowa State, North Carolina, Gonzaga and Iowa have all been considered “impressive.”
Not only has the North Carolina victory lost some luster, but Iowa State recently fell at home to Iowa by 16 points, and the Wolverines’ victory over those Hawkeyes came at home. The Gonzaga win, although extremely impressive, is really the team’s only “signature” victory.
The Wolverines are still likely a top 10-15 team in college basketball, but when one looks back at their resume, the recent losses to Illinois and Oregon shouldn’t be overly surprising.
Virginia
Lastly, let’s turn towards Virginia. At some point this season, the Cavaliers’ victories over Syracuse, Arizona State and North Carolina have all been considered “impressive.”
Now? Syracuse is 7-5, and Arizona State recently lost by 40 to Saint Mary’s. Following a 29-point road loss at Purdue, Virginia fans surely took some solace in the 56-47 home win over the Tar Heels. But should they have? A home victory over this year’s North Carolina squad isn’t worth celebrating too much, and Tony Bennett’s squad likely still has plenty of unresolved issues (fell at home to South Carolina 59-70 this past Sunday).
Each of Ohio State, Michigan and Virginia will likely hang around in the AP Poll for the vast majority of this season. In terms of evaluating these teams, however, the full context of their schedules needs to be taken into consideration. The “perceptions” of the North Carolina wins in particular simply don’t match the “reality.”