Duke Basketball: Why big man Vernon Carey is nation’s best player

Vernon Carey Jr. has been the best freshman in the country so far and should be in the lead for National Player of the Year for his dominance for 11-1 Duke.

Vernon Carey Jr. has been the best freshman in the country so far. He has been the dominant force for a Duke basketball team that while not as great as it usually is, is still the No. 4 team in the AP poll and No. 2 in KenPom as we inch closer to the New Year.

There doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut option for National Player of the Year because in a season without a dominant No. 1 team, we have already seen six different AP No. 1 teams before January 1. But with that being the case, the clear front-runner for National Player of the Year should be a player from a top-five team, who is unequivocally responsible for a large share of his team’s success. That describes Duke’s Carey to a tee, and thus Carey should currently be in the lead for National Player of the Year.

Of course, it is unfair to compare anyone to the once-in-a-lifetime-generational-talent that is Zion Williamson. But when I started writing about Carey’s National Player of the Year case, I started with the young man who wore that same No. 1 jersey and dominated on his way to the award.

Through 12 games, both Carey and Williamson’s squads were 11-1 with some quality wins. Both are huge compared to the peers, each coming at or over 270 lbs, with Williamson being (prior to injury at least) the most explosive, agile, big man we’ve seen in quite some time. Carey doesn’t have that type of agility, but he is just as dominating an inside presence, and arguably plays a bigger role on a clearly less talented team.

Here are the three reasons Carey should be the frontrunner for the Naismith Award:

Carey is maybe the most physical player in the country for a team that possesses the 8th best adjusted offensive rating in the nation (113.0). Similar to last year’s squad, the 2019-20 Blue Devils aren’t an amazing 3-point shooting team but they are much better compared to that team at 33.8% from 3-point range. Varey eats up all of those misses with a 12.6% offensive rebound percentage that mirror’s Williamson’s (12.7%). Carey gets low, initiates the first contact, and gets a decent amount of points by playing like a man amongst boys, National Player of the Year-type stuff for sure that shows up on tape:

Carey has already proven to be a dominant rim protector and one of the ACC’s best shot blockers. He has an 8.4% percent block rate and though he has been aided by being able to be parked near the rim a lot, his activity level is impressive. The fact that Carey isn’t lethargic on defense while unequivocally being the team’s offensive focal point is important and his two-way play has to be recognized, even more as Duke—the No. 1 team in KenPom—continues to rack up quality wins.

Carey is fourth in the ACC in scoring (18.7 PPG), third in rebounds per game (9.0), fourth in blocks (2.1) while leading the conference in field goal percentage (61%), shooting 57.1% from 3-point range on seven total attempts and 63.5% from the free throw line on 7.1 attempts per game.

Carey’s absurd 38.7 PER is higher than the player in second place by a margin of 9.7. To put this in perspective, in his lone year at Duke, Zion Williamson finished with a 40.8 PER.

Vernon Carey Jr. and the Duke Blue Devils will be back in action Tuesday against the Boston College Eagles in a game where Duke will be expected to win big. After that, they’ll take on Miami, and then Georgia Tech, with both games being on the road. Both squads will be big-time underdogs, and it will be tough for them to deal with Duke’s size and physicality.

Carey will be there front and center, bruising his way to big numbers as Duke chases the ultimate prize: an NCAA Championship trophy. But if the big box scores persist, Carey should have some individual hardware of his own at the end of the 2019-20 season.