Pregame Hark’s Bark
1. Will Baldwin be available and highly-effective?
Kamar Baldwin injured his ankle against St. John’s and missed the majority of the second half as a result. Even though he did retake the court for the final minutes to will Butler to a victory, he was seen in a walking boot following the performance. He was listed as day-to-day. Upon returning to campus, Baldwin did not practice on Thursday and remains a game-time decision for this matchup with Creighton.
There are many reasons why Butler fans will want to see their star guard back on the floor but his defense might be most missed if he is not able to take the court. Creighton’s offensive firepower in its backcourt will be tough for the Dawgs to cover even with Baldwin in the lineup. Additionally, it would be a mistake to ignore the fact that KB is Butler’s go-to scorer in crunch time. This matchup has the makings of a close game and someone else might need to step up down the stretch with Baldwin out or hampered by injury.
KB’s status heading into this one will be the headlining story to monitor.
If Baldwin is either not able to play or will be limited in his effectiveness, watch for Khalif Battle to see a ton of playing time. The freshman guard has played quite well at home so far this season and can defend 1-through-4 on Creighton’s roster if necessary. He brings an athletic 6-foot-5 frame and has been praised for his on-ball defense off the bench so far this season. Battle can also create for himself offensively and score at all three levels – two skills that Butler might need to be on display if Baldwin isn’t at his best.
2. Will Coach Jordan choose to go big or small?
Creighton, as I indicated on several occasions, is the prototype for how to succeed with a small-ball lineup. The Bluejays are disciplined, quick with their hands, and physical in the paint despite a rotation featuring everyone under 6-foot-8. With their speed in transition and ability to space the floor, Creighton often forces teams to play their style and sub out a center for another guard simply to defend. Other opponents, though, will try utilizing their normal lineups and exploiting potential advantages in the paint while giving up some quickness.
There’s an interesting scheming trade-off for every opponent that faces Creighton and I am intrigued to see how Butler’s head coach LaVall Jordan handles that.
Considering the Dawgs enter this contest at 13-1, Coach Jordan will deploy his usual starting lineup. There’s no reason to change that. But how many minutes will see out of Bryce Golden? Will Derrik Smits see the floor at all? Monitoring their playing time will be interesting as Coach Jordan has typically leaned in favor of matching small vs. small rather than utilizing a big lineup against a smaller team. For example, just look at the box scores from Butler’s win over Wofford.
If he chooses to go small in the frontcourt, watch for some three-wing lineups with Tucker, McDermott, and Christian David playing the 2-3-4 and Bryce Nze anchoring the rotation. That would be a potential solution to give Baldwin a rest (if healthy) and also match Creighton with a lineup capable of bringing size, speed, and two-way abilities. We could also see lots of playing time for the likes of Khalif Battle and/or Henry Baddley.
3. How engaged will Hinkle be?
Butler basketball fans are some of the most engaged in the country and there are few basketball venues as famed as Hinkle Fieldhouse. Yet, this game will occur over Winter Break for the student population. While it is reasonable to think that some of the student body that is close to Indy will return to campus for a conference opponent, that shouldn’t be a given. Hinkle Fieldhouse might be mainly filled with alumni for this one, and it is worth monitoring just how full and electric the atmosphere will be.
There have been some pretty spectacular atmospheres in Hinkle while over Winter Break in recent years (see Villanova a few years ago) and hopefully that will be the case again in this one. Creighton might not have a national ranking right now but it is a serious contender for the Big East title in my opinion. This game could have a major impact on that conference race.
This is a very tricky game to predict due to Baldwin’s uncertain injury status. If he is able to play and is close to 100%, I think that the Dawgs are the better team while holding home-court advantage. I will hazard a guess and say that Butler’s star takes the court even though he is not completely healthy and is somewhat effective. That, though, will be enough as Thompson plays a spectacular game to make up for a poor outing against SJU.
Final Score Prediction: Butler Bulldogs – 67, Creighton Bluejays – 63.