Bracketology 2020 Projected Field: Creighton, USC on the rise

Bubble Talk

Although this season is approaching its halfway point, there are absolutely no certainties involved with this bracket. There are a few teams that should be viewed as “locks” but not many as several top teams have dropped questionable games and are playing in “minefield” leagues full of potential bad losses.

In addition to the chaos at the top of the field, though, the bubble is an absolute mess right now. Figuring out who actually belongs in the field at this point in the season is silly because there are still tons of games left to play but the bubble is impossible to sort out right now.

In the end, I wound up including Virginia, Purdue, Georgetown, and DePaul as my final four teams in the field. I don’t feel great about those teams being included (particularly the first two) but there aren’t many resumes on the outside-looking-in that really warrant being ahead of them.

For example…

• Washington is just 1-3 in Q1+2 games and also has a Q4 loss on its resume. Additionally, the average predictive metric for the Huskies is now over 60.
• Wisconsin arguably has the best argument of all “OUT” teams to be included thanks to strong computer rankings. With that said, though, the Badgers’ SOR sits at 70th nationally as they have already taken five losses. At a certain point, actually winning should matter over just playing well against a difficult schedule. You can also say the same about Purdue, though, to be fair.
• Is Texas Tech good enough to warrant a bid? Definitely, in my opinion. Does the Red Raiders’ resume say they should be included right now? Absolutely not. Head coach Chris Beard’s team somehow only has one win in Quadrants 1, 2, and 3 combined while also having already suffered three losses.
• Despite strong efficiency metrics, Illinois is just 3-5 in Q1/2/3 games as they just can’t seem to win the big ones and already have a ton of losses.
• Virginia Tech has already played eight Q4 games and doesn’t feature enough quality wins.
• Ole Miss, Missouri, Utah, St. John’s, Arizona State, Alabama, and Mississippi State all have relatively solid resumes but none of their computer numbers are up to par.
• Utah State has disappointed a bit. The Aggies have solid efficiency rankings but don’t have a great resume due to three losses, including one to UNLV by 17. They have just one win over a team currently in the field (Florida on a neutral).
• Mid-major programs such as UNC-Greensboro, ETSU, Furman, Northern Iowa, Yale, and Louisiana Tech – as well as some A10 schools – have suffered some questionable losses to set back their at-large hopes.

On the whole, it is essentially impossible to sort out who actually belongs in the back-end of the bracketology field right now. I’m not trying to say that the bubble is “bad”, but there aren’t many teams truly deserving of being in the field because there are so many comparable resumes. The bubble will hopefully sort itself out a bit more in the coming weeks.

Note: I will be posting my full “Bubble Watch” every week starting in mid-January. This is a separate piece from my bracketology field and will break down every single team in contention for an at-large bid. I have written this in each of the past two seasons as well. 

That concludes this edition of bracketology projected field of 68. Was your favorite team able to crack the bracket? If not, there is plenty of time left to make a run. There are lots of games left to be played in conference play for every team.