Villanova vs. Marquette: 2019-20 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

Marquette Basketball is forced to pick itself off the mat against No. 10 Villanova Basketball after a beatdown in Omaha.

TV Schedule: Saturday, Jan. 4, 2 p.m. EST

Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, Wis.)

Marquette’s dedication to following a nearly identical game script to the 2018-19 Golden Eagles is almost beyond words at this point. Read my non-conference recap for a side-by-side comparison of the eerily similar resumes, but you can now tack on Creighton’s New Year’s Day thrashing of MU next to the comparable beatdown the Golden Eagles’s suffered at St. John’s in the Big East opener a year ago.

After showing impressive defensive gains in 2019-20, Marquette (10-3, 0-1) looked decidedly helpless against the Bluejays’ up-tempo pace, surrendering a season-worst 1.19 points per possession on the backs of wide-open lanes and a bevy of fouls. Now, Marquette has just two days to lick its wounds against no. 10 Villanova (10-2, 1-0), who owns the seventh-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation.

What makes VU so tough to guard is how they spread the defense with shooters to create the proper space and mismatches for driving opportunities inside. Six Wildcats play at least 21 minutes a night and all six average between 9 and 15 points per game. As a team, Villanova ranks 34th in the nation in two-point field goal percentage (55.4 percent), which is just a tick under the mark Marquette allowed inside at Creighton.

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How the Golden Eagles deploy their big man rotation will be crucial. Typically, starter Theo John soaks up about 20 minutes, with backups Ed Morrow and Jayce Johnson sharing the rest of the game. Against CU, John looked lost in space against the smaller Jays early, which forced Steve Wojciechowski to go to the 6-foot-7 Morrow. The fifth-year senior was better than John, but did not exactly light it up either; his smaller frame might make him seem like a better candidate to go to small, but Morrow really is just a traditional big man with the height of a small forward. He has not proven capable of guarding quicker players on the perimeter, nor has the 7-foot Johnson. Creighton viciously exploited those weaknesses, as noted MU hoops blog Paint Touches pointed out here.

Villanova, of course, has four primary frontcourt players in Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jermaine Samuels, and Cole Swider, and each is comfortable playing away from the basket. Wojo will go surely go back to John to start the game, but it might be worth exploring whether using Jamal Cain or Brendan Bailey as a small-ball 5 is a better course of action.

There is one saving grace for Marquette, however. Villanova plays at a glacially slow pace (256th in adjusted tempo), so for a Marquette team that does not rely on a ton of transition baskets for offense, the slower pace should at least prevent the game from getting out of hand. Last season, Marquette knocked off Villanova at home 66-65 and blew a late lead on the road to lose 67-61. Expect another close contest on Saturday in Milwaukee.

One final note: even more so than in the past, when Markus Howard plays poorly this year, Marquette not only loses but gets thoroughly whipped. Marquette’s three losses have been by an average of 18 points, in which Howard is only averaging 14 ppg on 27 percent shooting. In the Golden Eagles’ nine wins (he missed the win against Jacksonville with a concussion), Howard is posting 29 ppg on 49 percent shooting. There are positive signs of development from teammates Bailey and Sacar Anim, but Howard is the true bellwether of the team’s success.

Luckily for the Golden Eagles, Howard is averaging 22 ppg on 47 percent shooting in seven career contests against Villanova, including a sparkling 38 at home against the ‘Cats last winter. It might take another virtuoso performance from the star senior on Saturday to keep Marquette from an 0-2 hole in Big East play.