Bracketology: 5 biggest questions for rest of 2019-20 season
4. How likely is it that the WCC, Mountain West and A-10 all get 3+ bids?
Stearman
I would say that there is less than a 10% chance that all of these conferences get 3+ bids. The WCC seems to have the best shot, with Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and BYU all looking like tourney participants. The Mountain West’s case is much flimsier. San Diego State is nearly a lock for a spot, but Utah State is just a bubble team. In order to get three bids, Utah State would need to be really in conference play, and an unexpected team (New Mexico?) would need to get hot and win the conference tournament.
Dayton is a no doubt tournament team in the A-10, and if they lose their conference tournament, the A-10 will certainly get two bids. Who would be the other at large, though? Maybe you could’ve made a case for Duquesne earlier in the season, but after they got slapped around by a bad Marshall team, that dream looks dead. Maybe VCU or Saint Louis will come alive in conference play and turn into possibilities.
Harkins
I think this is a highly unlikely scenario. To explain why let’s break it down by conference. Starting with the WCC, Gonzaga is a lock and there’s no doubt about that. St. Mary’s and BYU both have legitimate shots at at-large bids but neither is a sure-thing. Considering they will have to play each other twice, they cannibalize their shots at high-quality wins while both have to deal with potential landmines with the rest of the league. Either one beating Gonzaga, though, is a huge resume-booster. I do think that the WCC has a good shot at three bids. It’s the other two I have a hard time believing.
With the Mountain West, San Diego State should be a lock. Utah State follows a bit behind with decent odds of a bid but there is not a clear-cut third team. In order for this to be a three-bid league, the Aggies would need to be safely in the field and someone would have to upset both SDSU and USU in the conf. tournament. That feels unlikely and I would bet that the MWC is closer to a one-bid league than a three-bid league this year.
Lastly, the Atlantic 10 is in a similar spot to the MWC, although the three-bid outlook is a little brighter. Dayton is a lock, VCU is in an okay spot, and then nobody else looks like a *major* threat. I say this because I think the middle of the A10 (Rhody, Richmond, SLU, Duquesne, Davidson) is filled with teams that can contend for bids but will likely just beat up on each other. That leaves the only ways for a three-bid league being one team emerging from that crop in the middle for a great conference season or VCU/Dayton easily make the field and someone makes a surprise run at the auto-bid. It’s maybe 50/50.
On the whole, I think 1-2 of these leagues get three bids, but it’s hard to figure all of them will be able to. It’s also important to mention that in order for all three leagues to even contend for this possibility, each conference would have at least one team in double-digit seed/bubble territory. Once there, all of them would need to beat out high-major teams with presumably bigger wins for bids. This feels like an unlikely scenario.
Dieckhoff
Not likely. The A10 and WCC are more likely to do their part, but the Mountain West is a longshot to get that third bid. San Diego State and Utah State are nearing “lock” territory, but New Mexico’s promising start might come undone with the suspensions of Carlton Bragg and JJ Caldwell. Nevada isn’t quite there yet, but they are better than I expected coming into the year. I think they need to win the MWC Tournament to make it to the Big Dance, though.