Gonzaga Basketball: The “shooting weakness” that could derail Bulldogs
Gonzaga Basketball has a weakness that is preventing the team from reaching its potential. Is there any reason to expect improvement?
Whether one looks at the December 30th AP Poll or KenPom, Gonzaga Basketball is regarded as a top 6 team in the country. The Bulldogs have a weakness, however, that has reared its head in a few games and could derail the team come March. Fortunately for Zags fans, there may be some reason to expect improvement in this area.
(Credit to KenPom and sports-reference for statistics, updated as of 1/4)
Free Throw Shooting
With road wins over Washington and Arizona and a No. 1 ranking in the AP Poll, it’s hard to imagine Bulldogs fans having much to worry about at this point.
This would seem to be especially true on the offensive end of the floor, where Mark Few’s squad is ranked first in adjusted efficiency. There’s a weakness on this end, however, that could continue to create some problems: free throw shooting.
Gonzaga is only making 65.5% of its free throws (296th nationally). The fact that only 58 teams have gotten to the charity stripe at a higher rate has made this even more problematic.
Michigan
In the Bulldogs’ lone loss to Michigan (82-64), they went an ugly 6-13 (46.2% from the line). Gonzaga would have lost even if it made all of its free throws, but it was problematic regardless.
UT Arlington
One of the Bulldogs’ worst performances this season arguably came in a 72-66 home victory over UT Arlington. The victory could have been much more comfortable if Gonzaga had made more than 17-30 (56.7%) of its free throws.
Arizona
Even in an impressive road victory at Arizona, Gonzaga squandered a big lead in the last few minutes. Poor foul shooting had a lot to do with this (17-30, 56.7% on the game).
Portland
In the team’s recent road victory over Portland, in which it struggled parts of the night, its 11-23 (47.8%) free throw shooting made things even more difficult.
What players have been driving the poor foul shooting?
Flip Petrusev: 72-109 (66.1%)
Drew Timme: 35-57 (61.4%)
Ryan Woolridge: 24-44 (54.5%)
Joel Ayayi: 17-26 (65.4%)
Admon Gilder: 31-46 (67.4%)
Are these players all simply poor free throw shooters, or is there reason to expect some regression?
Flip Petrusev: 72-109 (66.1%)
Petrusev, an 85.3% (64-75) foul shooter last season, should definitely improve going forward. Prior to a 1-6 performance against Portland, he was shooting 72.7% (24/33) over the prior three games.
His 109 free throw attempts exceed any other Bulldog by a large margin (Timme is second with 57 attempts). If/when he improves from the line, it’ll make a big difference.
Drew Timme: 35-57 (61.4%)
Timme is a freshman, and his high school statistics do not seem to be available. He’s shot 8/11 (72.7%) from the line in the last three games, so perhaps there’s room for optimism.
Ryan Woolridge: 24-44 (54.5%)
There doesn’t seem to be much reason to expect improvement from Woolridge. The senior shot only 57.5%, 51.2% and 55.8% his prior three seasons at North Texas.
If there’s any reason for optimism, it’s that perhaps his stellar long-range shooting will eventually translate to the foul line. After only shooting 35.7%, 30.0% and 32.1% at North Texas, Woolridge has made 21-37 (56.8%) of his threes this season (4th-best nationally).
Among players that have played at least ten games this season and averaged at least one made three per game, only four players are shooting better than 50.0% from downtown and worse than 55.0% from the line (per sports-reference).
Ryan Woolridge – Gonzaga
DaQuan Bracey – Louisiana Tech
Mark Tikhonenko – Sam Houston State
DJ Draper – North Texas – guess they were able to replace Woolridge? 😉
It seems much more likely that Woolridge’s 3-point percentage goes down than his free throw percentage goes up, but who knows?
Joel Ayayi: 17-26: 65.4%
After only shooting 2-7 (28.6%) last season, it’s hard to know if anything better than his current 62.7% is reasonable to hope for. Ayayi is shooting 12-15 (80.0%) over the last seven games, however, so perhaps this can be sustained.
Admon Gilder: 31-46 (67.4%)
Gilder shot 76.1%, 74.3% and 82.1% in his last three seasons at Texas A&M (82.1% last season), so some improvement at the line seems inevitable. Prior to his 1-4 performance against Portland, the senior was shooting 71.4%.
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If Gonzaga’s free throw shooting doesn’t improve, it’s easy to imagine the team falling in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament after shooting 50% from the line.
Fortunately for Bulldogs fans, there’s a fair amount of reason to expect foul shooting to improve going forward. In particular, Flip Petrusev’s performance from the line will be worth monitoring closely. If he turns things around, Mark Few’s squad will be much more “bulletproof” than they’ve been up to this point.