NCAA Basketball: Why computers love Arizona and hate the AP Poll
There are always ranking discrepancies between the NCAA Basketball AP Poll and analytics sites. When these get especially large, however, it’s worth taking notice.
The analytics (or “computer”) rankings (KenPom, Barttorvik, Haslametrics, etc.) are useful tools for evaluating college basketball teams. Every season, there are squads the analytics “love” relative to their placement in the AP Poll. On the flip side, there are teams they “hate” as well. Sometimes the discrepancies between the analytics and AP Poll aren’t very large, but when they are, it’s worth digging further.
Who do the computers “love” and “hate” this season? Using the three aforementioned sites, I took an “average computer ranking” for each of the 25 teams in the most recent AP Poll. Next, I compared these average rankings to each team’s placement in the AP voting.
(Rankings updated as of 1/21/20)
What stands out? There are seven teams with a rankings discrepancy greater than +/-10.0. Relative to their placement in the AP Poll, the computers “really hate” six teams and only “really loves” one.
Who the computers “hate”
Villanova
Kentucky
Florida State
Auburn
Memphis
Texas Tech
It’s not worth trying to figure out precisely why the algorithms “love” or “hate” these squads, but a little speculation is warranted. Generally speaking, the computers don’t value wins and losses as much as they do scoring margin. A 1-point loss is regarded as marginally different than a 1-point win, while a 25-point victory is viewed significantly differently than a 5-point advantage.
Villanova
There is no AP Top 25 team the computers “hate: more than Villanova, with a ranking differential of 19.0. The Wildcats have five victories by six points or less, so perhaps this is part of what’s driving this. The team’s one-point victory against Kansas generated a lot of hype nationally and caused the team to jump eight spots (18 to 10) in the AP Poll. The slim margin of victory understandably didn’t move the needle quite as much for the computers, however.
Villanova’s recent 76-61 victory over Butler helped its standing with the analytics quite a bit, so it’s noteworthy that the discrepancy is still as large as it is. With a few more performances like that, this will undoubtedly change.
Kentucky
Kentucky (14-4) might have strong wins over Michigan State and Louisville, but losing to Evansville, Utah and South Carolina surely did not impress the computers. A few unimpressive home wins over Utah Valley and UAB likely didn’t help the cause either.
Florida State
Florida State might be being “punished” for two overtime victories over Purdue and Miami. A 79-74 home win against Western Carolina might have hurt their standing as well.
Auburn
As has been well documented, Auburn’s strong record has included few if any great wins and the recent losses to Alabama and Florida seem to back up the idea that the Tigers were a bit overrated relative to their AP Poll placement. Even prior to these games, however, the computers weren’t particularly high on Auburn.
Memphis
Most of the computers have been relatively low on the Tigers as early as the preseason. Like Auburn, the lack of a “notable” win might be holding this team back. A road victory over Tennessee in December was fairly impressive, but the shine has waned a bit as Tennessee has undergone some struggles.
Texas Tech
The discrepancy here is largely driven by the Red Raiders’ recent 65-54 road loss at TCU. This dropped them considerably in the computers, and they would like have dropped in the AP Poll as well if it came out after this defeat. Texas Tech’s upcoming matchup against Kentucky will provide the opportunity to offset this loss before the next poll comes out.
Who the computers “love”
Arizona
The trend in the findings is that from the perspective of the computers, the AP Poll was much more likely to overrate teams rather than underrate. There is one team, however, that the analytics suggest is being considerably underrated: Arizona.
The reasoning for this becomes fairly clear when one looks at their schedule. At 13-5, four of the Wildcats‘ five losses have come by narrow margins, with three coming to sure-fire tournament teams.
Five losses:
Baylor – 63-58 – road
Gonzaga – 84-80 – home
St John’s – 70-67 – neutral
Oregon – 74-73 – road – OT
Oregon St – 82-65 – road
Although Arizona doesn’t have many noteworthy wins, its two best victories (Illinois, Colorado) were by large margins, something the computers surely appreciated.
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The computers aren’t always right, so it will be interesting to see whether Arizona trends well the remainder of the season and whether the six “hated” teams underperform.