Basketball is a make-or-miss game, but the quality of an NCAA Basketball offense’s shot attempts can be a major driver of a team’s success.
The best NCAA Basketball offenses tend to not only make shots but take good shots. The analytics site Dribble Handoff provides a valuable tool that evaluates a team’s shot quality (or shot selection).
(Credit to Dribble Handoff, hoop-math and KenPom for statistics and Loyola Ramblers and ESPN for GIFS)
The tool, called “ShotQ,” is defined by the site as an “innovative and proprietary metric…that quantifies team’s offensive and defensive shot quality.” It’s not clear exactly what goes into this metric, but one can assume a few basic things, like the preference for 3-pointers over mid-range shots and catch-and-shoot jumpers over off-the-dribble ones.
The data is available for the current 2019-20 season and compares a team’s ShotQ and effective field goal percentage (eFG%) rankings. It’s worth diving into some of the key takeaways from the season thus far (as of 1/25/20).
Top 10 Teams in Offensive Shot Quality
1.Loyola Chicago
2. Penn
3. Dayton
4. McNeese St
5. Belmont
6. Stanford
7. Gonzaga
8. Abilene Christian
9. Boise State
10. Princeton
Other notables:
19. BYU
20. Villanova
25. Michigan
88. Kansas
Loyola Chicago
Loyola Chicago might be unlikely to make another Final Four run this season, but Porter Moser’s squad should be commended for its shot quality. The Ramblers haven’t taken that many threes in recent years (327th, 302nd, 229th in attempt rate), so the strong shot selection seems to be driven by getting shots close to the basket.
Loyola is currently 5th nationally in 2-point percentage (56.4%) and finished 24th and 12th the past two seasons. Although this interior efficiency has driven eFG% rankings of 4th, 21st and 7th, the offenses as a whole haven’t cracked the top 50 in KenPom (62nd in 2017-18, Final Four season).
Why? The Ramblers have been middle-of-the-pack in the areas of offense not related to shooting the basketball, notably turnovers and offensive rebounding. Loyola has both turned the ball over more than its peers and completed abandoned the offensive glass. Moser’s teams have ranked 351st, 348th and 332nd in offensive rebounding the last three seasons, something that has clearly hurt the team’s offensive efficiency.
This has surely been a strategic decision by Moser, however, who has valued getting back on defense/limiting transition opportunities over offensive rebounding. Although this has clearly hindered the offensive end of the floor, this approach has likely benefited the team’s defensive efficiency. The trade-off may very well be worth it.