Utah State and San Diego State face off in the latest big MWC matchup; will the Aztecs continue their winning ways or can the Aggies pull off the stunner?
TV schedule: Saturday, February 1, 10:00 pm ET. CBSSN
Arena: Viejas Arena in San Diego, California
Last season, Utah State (17-6) were the darlings of the Mountain West and certainly one of basketball’s biggest surprises. With plenty of talent back this season, things were only looking up for the Aggies. Unfortunately, Craig Smith’s team is left looking up at their opponent and face their toughest challenge of the season.
As expected, the big name to watch is senior guard Sam Merrill (17.9 ppg 4.5 rpg). Merrill continues to provide solid offense for the Aggies, dropping 28 points on Colorado State last weekend. Another name to watch is sophomore forward Justin Bean (12.9 ppg, 10.3 rpg), who has really developed as a rebounding machine this season. Following a battle with injuries, the Aggies are also fortunate to have sophomore center Neemias Queta (11.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg) who should continue to have an impact on these games.
Utah State sits at 47th in KenPom and 55th in NET rankings. If the NCAA Tournament started today, they would not be included and will likely need to pull at least one upset over the Aztecs to punch their ticket. Their defense has been playing inspired ball in recent weeks, giving up no more than 61 points in their last three outings. While these wins have been against conference foes, this game will be an entirely different challenge.
As the quest for perfection continues, San Diego State (22-0) continues to win people over, flattening New Mexico in their most recent outing to prolong their hot start. Coach Brian Dutcher’s team has played extraordinary basketball, particularly on the defensive end, though they simply weren’t missing shots against the Lobos this week. Can anyone stop this team if they play like this moving forward?
Junior guard Malachi Flynn (16.5 ppg, 4.9 apg) is the player making the biggest impact for the Aztecs, though the team’s recent play as a whole should scare people. Flynn did not score in the first half against the Lobos during which the Aztecs built an insurmountable 23-point lead. The play of senior forward Yanni Wetzell (12.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and junior forward Matt Mitchell (11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg) has been vital to the team’s success, while KJ Feagin (8.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg) dropped 18 points in that win over New Mexico.
Justifying their #4 ranking in the AP Top 25, San Diego State is 1st in NET and 6th in KenPom during their perfect start to the season. The defense has been causing havoc on opposing teams, giving up less than 70 points in every game since late November. They rank near the top of the nation in many categories and have been especially potent from the 3-point line, both on offense and defense lately.
For the Aggies, they’re going to need a hot shooting night to help solve this tough defense. Merrill is going to have to play a fantastic game and that defense needs to take things to another level. For the Aztecs, win #23 can come at home if their defense contains the Aggies’ offense. If they keep shooting the ball like they did at New Mexico, then this team will not be stopped. Assuming they don’t, lockdown defense will help them ride the home crowd to another win.
Utah State was the darling of the MWC last season, but that crown has clearly been passed on. This should be an exciting game, especially with the Aggies’ recently improved play. It’s possible that they can pull off the stunning upset, though doing so on the road would be shocking. San Diego State punched the Lobos in the mouth with a 17-0 start and Utah State will need a similar start. I don’t see it happening.