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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Xavier, Tulsa surging into consideration

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: The reflection of the stadium can be seen in a bubble ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: The reflection of the stadium can be seen in a bubble ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /
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RICHMOND, VA – DECEMBER 07: VCU players laugh. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
RICHMOND, VA – DECEMBER 07: VCU players laugh. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Dayton.

Safely in the field: None.

Some perspiration: Rhode Island.

Double the deodorant: VCU, Richmond

Rhode Island Rams (17-5, 9-1 A10)

NET: 40 | KPI: 22 | SOR: 29 | BPI: 50 | KP: 45 | Sag: 45

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 5-1 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 5-0

Rhode Island is rolling right now and it has placed itself in solid positioning with regard to reaching the NCAA Tournament as a result. Ever since dropping their conference opener, the Rams have won nine straight games and have emerged as a legitimate contender to win the Atlantic 10. They recently secured home victories over VCU and UMass during this past week to move into the single-digit seed category for me. Rhody ranks well in all metrics and boasts solid quadrant records. While only having one Q1 win is a downfall to this resume, the team is 5-1 in Q2. Current Bracketology Status: No. 9 seed

VCU Rams (16-6, 6-3 A10)

NET: 36 | KPI: 52 | SOR: 47 | BPI: 38 | KP: 44 | Sag: 48

Q1: 1-4 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 7-0 | Q4: 6-0

VCU dropped its only contest since the last edition of my bubble watch as it fell on the road to Rhode Island. While that certainly isn’t a bad loss, it will go down as a missed opportunity. The Rams now sit at 16-6 (6-3 A10) on the year and are below-.500 in Q1+2 games. VCU ranks in the Top 50 in almost every single metric and is yet to take a bad loss this season, though, so it belongs around the cutline. The Rams have a relatively tough closing schedule with six more games against the KenPom Top 100 – that includes a pair of Q1 opportunities at Richmond and vs. Dayton. Current Bracketology Status: No. 11 seed

Richmond Spiders (16-6, 6-3 A10)

NET: 56 | KPI: 49 | SOR: 51 | BPI: 56 | KP: 60 | Sag: 75

Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 9-0

Richmond got back on track during this past week with a dominating home win over George Washington. With that said, though, the Spiders have a little bit of work to do to get back into my projected field after missing opportunities against Dayton and VCU during the prior week. Richmond has a favorable closing schedule with regard to facing lower-level competition. The Spiders should be favored in all but one game the rest of the year if they play to their potential. Richmond is out of regular-season Q1 opportunities but simply winning the games on its schedule might be enough. This team is just on the outside-looking-in and handling its business while the rest of the bubble drops games could be enough. Current Bracketology Status: OUT

Lots of work to do: Saint Louis.

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