Texas Tech hosts TCU on Monday as the Red Raiders seek revenge and the Horned Frogs look to snap a five-game losing streak.
Who: TCU Horned Frogs (13-10, 4-6) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (15-8, 6-4)
When: Monday, Feb. 10 at 9 p.m. EST
Where: United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas
TV Schedule: ESPN2
The TCU Horned Frogs travel to Texas Tech Monday on a five-game losing skid, with their most recent defeat coming in a 14-point home loss Saturday against Kansas.
The last win for the Horned Frogs came in an upset against the Red Raiders, then the No. 18 team in the AP Poll, on Jan. 21. Behind 27 points from senior guard Desmond Bane, TCU won 65-54 and earned its first and only win against a ranked opponent this season.
A repeat victory would be a serious boost for TCU’s NCAA Tournament resume. The Horned Frogs sit at No. 80 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, and they are on the verge of falling out of the tournament bubble if their losing streak continues. Don’t bank on them righting the ship on Monday.
Since the 2017-18 season, Texas Tech coach Chris Beard has never lost consecutive regular-season games to the same team. The Horned Frogs will need to dial in on both ends of the floor in order to snap that streak.
TCU coach Jaime Dixon’s offense thrives on 3-pointers and second-chance opportunities. The Horned Frogs shoot 43.5% of their field goals from beyond the arc and connect on 34.1%, according to Sports Reference. They rank No. 70 in the country in total offensive rebounds.
In January’s win over Texas Tech, TCU sank 8 triples on 40% shooting, grabbed 11 offensive rebounds and scored 17 second-chance points. Bane alone shot 6 for 8 from deep.
That doesn’t usually happen against Texas Tech, which currently ranks No. 7 in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. On the season, the Red Raiders are holding opponents to an average of 31.1% from 3-point land and roughly nine offensive rebounds per contest.
Fresh off a come-from-behind road win against Texas and three weeks removed from their trip to TCU, the Red Raiders should be more prepared this time for what Bane, sophomore Kevin Samuel and the rest of Dixon’s squad bring on the offensive end.
This go-around, expect Beard to have Texas Tech defending Dixon’s spread offense more like it did against Oklahoma State than it did against TCU in January.
Texas Tech is conceding the skip pass and then switching the DHO during the pinch post portion of Oklahoma State's Spread offense.
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) January 4, 2020
0 points for OSU on possessions that included pinch post in the 1st half. Could probably steal a bucket if they fake the DHO: pic.twitter.com/Fn5V5ItmTU
Texas Tech "ice-to-switch" ball screen coverage: pic.twitter.com/fYCZOzMKQM
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) November 12, 2019
TCU is also a capable defensive squad, with the nation’s 57th highest adjusted defensive efficiency rating, according to Kenpom. In their first matchup, the Horned Frogs held Texas Tech to its second-lowest point total of the season and rode a 22-7 second-half run to victory.
That means another key for Texas Tech on Monday will be scoring. In games when they’ve tallied at least 62 points, the Red Raiders are 15-3. They’re 0-5 when they’ve dropped 61 or fewer.
Only one of those five low-scoring losses came at home, however, and it was against the No. 1 Baylor Bears. Texas Tech is 11-2 inside United Supermarkets Arena this season.
Meanwhile, TCU is 1-5 on the road and 1-1 in a neutral-court setting.
Prediction: Texas Tech wins, 73-63