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MAC Basketball: Can the Akron Zips make noise in 2020 NCAA Tournament?

By Jacob Zinkula

LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - NOVEMBER 24: Head Coach John Groce of the Akron Zips directs his team in the game against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at KFC YUM! Center on November 24, 2019 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - NOVEMBER 24: Head Coach John Groce of the Akron Zips directs his team in the game against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at KFC YUM! Center on November 24, 2019 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /
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AUBURN HILLS, MI – MARCH 21: The masoct for the Akron Zips (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
AUBURN HILLS, MI – MARCH 21: The masoct for the Akron Zips (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Embracing the Long Ball

With Dambrot at the helm, few teams shot threes at a greater rate, and Groce’s presence hasn’t changed this. After struggling to hit shots last season, the Zips have had a remarkable turnaround, shooting 38.6% from downtown (14th nationally).

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It’s not as if Akron has simply brought in better shooters this season. Some notable returning players seem to have simply put in the work, and the results have been quite impressive. Each of Tyler Cheese, Loren Cristian Jackson and Channel Banks have looked like different players this season, with each seeing significant upticks in their 3-point shooting.

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With a 3-point attempt rate of 43.6% and a 38.6% 3-point percentage, the Zips are knocking on the door of the “40-40 club,” reserved for teams that are attempting >=40.0% of shots from three AND making >=40.0% of them.

Only BYU can boast membership status as of February 10th, but the Zips could be on the cusp with a few strong shooting games. If the team finds its way in, it would be putting itself in rather rare company, as only 20 teams have finished in the 40-40 Club over the last nine seasons. It’s worth noting that the longer 3-point line is making membership a lot more difficult to attain.

An Offense-Defense Flip

One of the most interesting dynamics surrounding Akron is its shift in offensive/defensive efficiency from last season. A year ago, Akron was 259th in offense, weighed down by its aforementioned poor 3-point shooting. The team was able to stay afloat due to its 22nd ranked defense.

This season, there’s been a bit of a flip. Aided by great 3-point shooting, the Zips are all the way up to 40th in offense, but the defense has fallen to 128th. What can explain the drop-off? Many of the defense’s characteristics are rather similar compared to last season, including a stingy defensive 2-point percentage and below-average defensive rebounding.

What’s changed? Well, it seems Akron may have gotten a bit lucky last season. Opposing 3-point shooting, an area the defense has limited control over, was elite last season and has regressed to the mean quite a bit.

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Regardless of this shift, Groce has put a strong team on the floor. The analytics like Akron, with KenPom and Barttorvik ranking the team 74th and 59th respectively.