2. Trifectas need to drop.
Seton Hall’s defense is elite. There’s no other way to put it. With Quincy McKnight on the perimeter and Romaro Gill anchoring the paint, very few teams in the country would be able to score with consistency against the Pirates. Head coach Kevin Willard‘s squad does an excellent job funneling its opponents into the paint before swatting shots away to create stops and transition opportunities. The Pirates rank 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
As a result, it is unlikely that Butler will be particularly excellent on the offensive end of the floor in this game. Even with Thompson likely back on the court, the Dawgs will have an uphill battle to create high-percentage looks inside. Seton Hall’s defense forces teams to win by making jump shots and that is exactly what Butler will need to do.
Seemingly the only common theme among the teams that have been able to knock off Seton Hall so far this season has been quality 3-point shooting. Here is how each team that beat the Pirates performed from beyond the arc in that matchup:
- Michigan State: 12-for-27 (.444)
- Oregon: 5-for-15 (.333)
- Iowa State: 4-for-19 (.211)
- Rutgers: 8-for-19 (.421)
- Xavier: 5-for-12 (.417)
- Creighton: 8-for-21 (.381)
- Providence: 7-for-17 (.412)
- Seton Hall’s 3-point defense in losses: 49-for-130 (.377)
- Seton Hall’s 3-point defense in wins: 99-for-361 (.274)
Butler isn’t the most deadly 3-point shooting team in the country but it does boast some threats. Sean McDermott and Jordan Tucker are clearly the most notable of the bunch as they can catch fire in a hurry and unafraid to let it fly at high volumes. McDermott, though, will need to awaken from his away-from-home shooting slump in order to make a major impact. Kamar Baldwin, Henry Baddley, and Khalif Battle are also capable of burying a couple of 3-pointers if they are left open on the perimeter.
Aaron Thompson is a great facilitator and he will be tasked with executing Butler’s offensive gameplan against a very stout defensive unit. Will he be able to create open looks and can the shooters connect? This could be the most crucial piece of the game.