NCAA Basketball: Baylor’s ceiling, Michigan’s return and more weekly takeaways
By Brian Rauf
3) Duke’s half-court offense will limit them
Duke will almost assuredly get a top-two seed in the NCAA Tournament, putting them in good position to potentially make a Final Four. They certainly have the talent to make that long of a run – and to potentially win the whole thing – but something is missing.
On the Busting Brackets Podcast, my co-host Connor Hope and I have discussed Duke in terms of being a team that could cut down the nets or be upset in the first round, and neither outcome would surprise us. The reason why their level of play is so varied is because of how inconsistent their half-court offense is.
Vernon Carey Jr. is an absolute monster down low and Duke is smart to feed him as much as they can because of how dominant he can be. That said, they also feed him so much because they don’t have many other options.
Their other starters – Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley, Wendell Moore, and Jordan Goldwire – all aren’t great shooters and none of them can create their own shot off the bounce. They’re all supremely athletic and are great in transition yet when forced to create something out of a set, they struggle to do so.
There are quality shooters on the Blue Devils roster in Alex O’Connell and Joey Baker, but a lack of defense has kept both from seeing significant minutes. Coincidentally, Duke’s offense was at his best when Baker saw a significant minutes increase in early December.
NC State took advantage of this weakness on Wednesday, packing the paint and forcing the Blue Devils to beat them from the outside. They couldn’t and shot just 37.7 percent from the field in a blowout loss.
Other teams that are better than the Wolfpack have and will do the same, and I don’t think Duke is good enough to make opponents pay. Expect these struggles to cause the Blue Devils to be eliminated earlier than expected.