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Marquette Basketball: How can 2019-20 Golden Eagles get off to better starts?

By Brian Foley

NEWARK, NJ - JANUARY 11: Jayce Johnson #34 of the Marquette Golden Eagles defends against a shooting Jared Rhoden #14 of the Seton Hall Pirates during a game at Prudential Center on January 11, 2020 in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Porter Binks/Getty Images)
NEWARK, NJ - JANUARY 11: Jayce Johnson #34 of the Marquette Golden Eagles defends against a shooting Jared Rhoden #14 of the Seton Hall Pirates during a game at Prudential Center on January 11, 2020 in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Porter Binks/Getty Images) /
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Marquette Basketball has fallen behind the eight-ball too often to begin games this season. What gives, and is a starting lineup change looming?

On Monday afternoon, noted Marquette Basketball blogger Andrei Greska of Paint Touches sent out a relatively innocuous tweet linking to some lineup data for the Golden Eagles. I was absolutely floored by the results.

As Greska pointed out, the lineup of Markus Howard, Koby McEwen, Sacar Anim, Brendan Bailey, and Theo John – essentially Marquette’s starting lineup for the entire year – has posted a net rating of minus-4.1 against top-100 competition thus far. That is certainly not a good number and is startlingly poor for a team that is hunting a mid-tier NCAA tournament seed.

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It does make some sense though. Anecdotally, it has felt, especially during Marquette’s three-game losing streak, that MU gets off to too many poor starts, and is constantly fighting an uphill battle. As it turns out, when the horn sounds for under-12 timeout in the first half, Marquette has been trailing in 63 percent of their contests against high-major teams. It’s honestly somewhat impressive that they have even managed to turn that into a 17-9 (7-7 Big East) record.

Back to the lineup data. Could a change in that starting unit fix whatever ails MU to start games? Below are the two lineups Steve Wojciechowski has played most this season:

M. Howard/K. McEwen/S. Anim/B. Bailey/T. John

  • 838 possessions (421 offensive, 417 defensive)
  • Offense: 102.4 points per 100 poss.
  • Defense: 107.2 points per 100 poss.

M. Howard/K. McEwen/S. Anim/B. Bailey/J. Johnson

  • 233 possessions (115 offensive, 118 defensive)
  • Offense: 113.0 points per 100 poss.
  • Defense: 94.9 points per 100 poss.

The evidence is pretty damning. Marquette is a whole new team when Wojo drops Jayce Johnson next to his core four perimeter players.

With John in that group, Marquette’s offense has been a trainwreck. The Golden Eagles’ 45.6 percent effective field goal percentage in those minutes would be good for 327th in the nation over a full season. And even though John is best known for his defense, opponents are still converting 64 percent of their attempts at the rim against Marquette starters, a number that dips to 53 percent when he is replaced by Johnson.

Johnson has never attempted a three in his college career, yet he has been integral to Marquette’s success from beyond the arc. With the bruising seven-footer in the fold, Howard, McEwen, Anim, and Bailey have nailed 40 percent of their threes, a healthy jump from the 35 percent mark with John. Johnson’s ability to yank down offensive boards – he would rank among the best in the nation if he had enough minutes to qualify – allows for kick-out threes to an open spot-up shooter. His screen-setting at the point of attack has also opened up quick-trigger treys for Howard, and his off-ball picks have created additional looks for his teammates from beyond the arc.

The data also reveals that the opposing lineups facing John and Johnson are nearly identical in terms of quality. With Marquette continually getting off to poor starts and in need of a shakeup ahead of March, it might be time to give Johnson the starting job. In conference play, Johnson has posted a plus-47 line, compared to a minus-26 for John.

Remember – there is always a ton of noise in five-man lineup data and plus/minus numbers. The starting group with John has soaked up over three times as many possessions as the Johnson iteration, and with other moving pieces, it’s admittedly tough to nail anything to one particular player. Perhaps Johnson simply has a better defensive partnership with the starters. Maybe Wojciechowski emphasizes different strategies with John rather than Johnson. There are variables that the numbers will never capture.

And John still has so many positive qualities as a player. The junior has been playing with a fairly serious hand injury all year, yet still brings ferocious energy and is a threat as a rim protector. Opponents only attempt 16 percent of their shots at the rim with John playing alongside the perimeter quartet, so even when he is somewhat limited, his reputation carries real weight in the Big East.

These lineup numbers are not the end-all, be-all, and it’s not like Johnson has dominated opponents during MU’s recent skid. In fact, John’s numbers have perked up of late, as he is averaging 7.3 points and 7.0 rebounds on 91 percent shooting over the past three games. A potential lineup change is not about excising John, but rather finding the best fit for the entire team.

Let’s examine one more lineup, which is Wojo’s third-most used group of the year:

M. Howard/K. McEwen/S. Anim/J. Cain/T. John

  • 195 possessions (98 off./97 def.)
  • Offense: 134.2 points per 100 poss.
  • Defense: 98.0 points per 100 poss.

It’s a small sample, but this group has been lights-out offensively and solid defensively. If Wojo did swap John and Johnson, he might be able to utilize his two best frontcourt pairings: Bailey/Johnson and Jamal Cain/John. These duos have fared well no matter which teammates are alongside them.

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Even with the three-game slide, Marquette remains well clear of any bubble talk. Still, with consecutive home matchups against Georgetown and Seton Hall looming, this is a big week in terms of stabilizing the season, boosting March seeds, celebrating Howard’s legacy, and settling the fanbase in yet another uneasy portion of the Wojchiechowski era. Using the grad transfer Johnson to open games and working in John as an energetic big man off the bench could be the right recipe for stronger starts and more sustainable runs down the stretch.

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