Seton Hall vs. Marquette: 2019-20 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

In Part X of the Myles Powell-Markus Howard series, the only things at stake are the conference title race, the Big East Player of the Year trophy, and March seedings between Marquette and Seton Hall. Buckle up.

TV Schedule: Saturday, Feb. 29 at 2:30 ET (FOX)

Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, Wis.)

Seven weeks is a lifetime in college basketball. When Seton Hall and Marquette last squared off in Newark on Jan. 11 – a 69-55 SHU victory – the Golden Eagles were in a state of turmoil, while the Pirates were in the midst of what would turn into an eight-game winning streak to open conference play.

Since then, Marquette (18-9, 8-7 Big East) has found its footing, then promptly face-planted into the mud for a two-week stretch, and now perhaps (?) regained its stride. Seton Hall (20-7, 12-3 Big East) lost its vice-grip on the conference with a similar two-week hiccup earlier this month but has also rebounded to keep second-place Creighton and Villanova at bay. Let’s run through the big topics and narratives entering the Saturday matinee.

The final Powell-Howard matchup? Myles Powell and the Pirates own a 5-4 edge against Markus Howard‘s Golden Eagles over the last four years, including three straight wins. By and large, the games have been tight, with six of the first nine iterations decided by two possessions or less. Powered by the Quincy McKnight Engine That Could, Seton Hall has put the clamps on Howard, holding him to just 23 shooting over the last three meetings, a far cry from the 45 percent mark he posted in the first six contests.

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Even though Powell has the leg up on Howard in the head-to-head matchup, Howard still has the advantage in the Big East Player of the Year race. Powell’s numbers are down across the board this year, as he is shooting below 25 percent from beyond the arc in conference play and has failed to post an offensive rating above 100 since Feb. 5. One of Creighton’s stars could make a late push for the award, but while Marcus Zegarowski and Ty-Shon Alexander complement each other perfectly on the court, they could siphon votes from each other in the POY race. Seton Hall’s schedule may be Powell’s saving grace; bounce-back performances against Marquette, Villanova, and Creighton in the final week of the season could swing the vote like a debate days before a presidential primary (#topical).

But back to Howard, who is starting to cook again after a mini-slump. Over Marquette’s last 45 minutes of action, Howard has 49 points on 15-24 shooting from the field. He just painted one of his true masterpieces on Wednesday night against the Artists Formerly Known as the Georgetown Hoyas, pairing his otherworldly scoring talents with some of the best ball movement he has ever shown (he finished with seven assists, and could have had at least three more if not for wide-open misses from his teammates). If Howard can muster enough strength to power past his Quincy Mc(krypto)Knight with another well-rounded offensive showing on Saturday, he will then have two road games against DePaul and St. John’s to fully cement his candidacy.

And if we’re looking at which marketing team wants it more, than it’s clearly no contest:

Big East Stretch Run: Despite Howard’s individual acclaim, Marquette has fallen out of the Big East title race. Seton Hall’s fast start to conference play has them well-positioned for the program’s first regular-season crown since 1993, but late-season surges by Creighton and Villanova have put the pressure back on the Pirates.

Creighton has by far the easiest remaining slate of the top three teams, with games against St. John’s and the Zombie Hoyas preceding Seton Hall’s trip to Omaha for the season finale. Villanova has Providence at home and Georgetown on the road bookending their own battle with SHU.

Even with the one-game advantage, T-Rank only gives the Pirates a 53.5 percent chance to grab at least a share of the conference title, compared to 62.1 percent for the Jays. If Marquette can defend its home court this weekend, Hall fans will have to strap in for a tense final week.

Frontcourt Strategy: On the court, the two star guards will be the headliners, but the game may be by the frontcourt substitution patterns.

7-foot-2 centers Romaro Gill and Ike Obiagu – yes, 40 percent of all high-major players who stand at least 86 inches are rostered by the Pirates – only blocked one shot between them against Marquette in January, but their mere paint presence spooked the Golden Eagles into attempting just 10 shots at the rim and making just 4. (For reference, MU has attempted 18.1 shots per game at the rim since that meeting.)

Marquette has two options to solve this 7-foot-2-sized riddle: go big or go small. Theo John has been one of Steve Wojciechowski’s ride-or-dies, starting 60 of 61 games over the past two years. But as a 6-foot-9 post player, he simply does not have the size to match up with Gill or Obiagu inside. And frankly, as I detailed earlier this week, Marquette has played significantly better with backup big man Jayce Johnson, who is listed at 7-feet with slinkies for arms that surely extend even farther. Even on Wednesday, in a comfortable 21-point MU win, John was a minus-6 for the game, while Johnson posted a plus-27. Plus/minus isn’t everything, but the Georgetown result was just another data point on a suddenly well-populated spreadsheet.

Johnson might actually get the start on Saturday as the grad transfer celebrates Senior Day, but a token start won’t be enough unless Wojo commits to the California native full-time.

The other option for Marquette – something I pressed for to no avail prior to the initial Seton Hall-Marquette matchup – is to play small-ball with Jamal Cain at the five. Just take one look at the Big East’s hottest team to see the value; part of what makes Creighton so successful is their ability to play five guys at a time who can all knock down a three or attack a closeout. In their win at Seton Hall on Feb. 12, the Bluejays only had a big man on the court for 22 total minutes, which forced Gill and Obiagu to the bench for parts of the stretch run. The Golden Eagles have the ability to do the same thing, fully weaponizing Howard in space with shooters in the process.

Marquette has only played Cain and Brendan Bailey together in the frontcourt without a center for 45 possessions this year, and hardly at all in high-major battles. Saturday might be the perfect time to dust off that lineup, especially with Bailey and Cain combining for 25 points on 5-10 three-point shooting against GU. A proactive game plan by Wojo where he plops Cain in the corner could either pull Gill away from the hoop and open up driving lanes for Howard and Sacar Anim or force Kevin Willard to go with his own small lineup, which would be a win for Marquette.

And if Gill simply hangs back in the paint and dares Cain to shoot, then so be-it; Cain has knocked down 42 percent of his treys this year. Marquette’s wings and guards are also strong rebounders, so Wojo does not necessarily need to worry about getting crushed on the glass until proven otherwise.

Shooters and space is the name of the game. The sooner the Golden Eagles capitalize on their roster potential and punish teams for playing a big man, the more dynamic they will become. And if they don’t, then Powell vs. Howard: Part X will still be a worthy consolation prize.