NC State and Duke meetup in an important ACC game; can the Wolfpack score another monumental upset or will the Blue Devils get revenge at home?
TV schedule: Monday, March 2, 7:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
Remaining firmly on the bubble, NC State (18-11) has put together an up and down season with a few quality wins that might just lead them to the NCAA Tournament. Though they’ve lost three of their last five, their big win two weeks ago against Duke has helped boost the resume; and the team did hold on to beat Pittsburgh on Saturday. Pulling a second upset over the Blue Devils will be just a bit harder.
Senior guard Markell Johnson (13.3 ppg, 6.5 apg) is the big name to watch and the Blue Devils sure know it. Johnson put up 28 points in the Wolfpack’s upset win. Senior guard CJ Bryce (13.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) totaled 16 points in their win over the Panthers, while junior forward DJ Funderburk (12.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg) remains a force in the interior. The Wolfpack shot greater than 60% from long-range against Duke last time; though that doesn’t seem like a repeatable trend.
NC State is 55th in KenPom and 57th in the NET rankings. They clearly still need a bit of a boost to get into safer tournament discussions. The Wolfpack are certainly more known for their offense, as they struggle greatly preventing second-chance opportunities on defense. The 3-point shooting really helped them build the big lead against Duke, but it’s been much more of a struggle throughout the year.
For Duke (23-6), a home date with a chance for revenge could be the perfect antidote to a really rough stretch. The Blue Devils were certainly in the conversation for one of the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament, but have dropped three of their last four games, all on the road. It’s been a little of everything for Duke, giving up 113 in a double-overtime loss while failing to break Virginia’s defense in Saturday’s shortcoming.
Fortunately, there is some serious talent on this deep Blue Devils roster. Freshman center Vernon Carey Jr. (17.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is the prized piece, playing a starring role in Duke’s recent losses to NC State (27 points) and Virginia (17 points). Sophomore guard Tre Jones (16.1 ppg, 6.5 apg) is an athletic skilled guard who can hit outside shots. Stud freshmen Cassius Stanley (12.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Matthew Hurt (10.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) will also garner the attention of the Wolfpack coaching staff.
Duke has seen their AP ranking lower in recent weeks, though they still sit at 5th in KenPom and 6th in the NET rankings. Duke is 12th in offensive efficiency and is one of the nation’s highest-scoring teams, while their defense ranks also near the top ten. This is a strong team that plays intense defense and rebounds the ball with skill.
For the Wolfpack, they might need an even better effort than last time to knock off Duke at home. They’ll need their shots (both interior and outside) to fall while avoiding sloppy play. They won the rebounding battle in the first outing and will definitely need to make similar strides. For the Blue Devils, they’ll need to open up their offense, especially after a sluggish game against Virginia. Feeding Carey in the post is a great start, but Jones and the other guards will need to get their fill as well.
Duke’s play in recent weeks has certainly been substandard, but there’s no reason to believe they won’t take care of business at home. This team should be pissed off, ready to unleash on their in-state rivals who embarrassed them a few weeks ago. Obviously, NC State could catch Duke off-guard; but I don’t see the Wolfpack leading the Blue Devils for forty minutes for a second time.