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ACC Basketball: Louisville vs. Virginia preview, TV, injuries and key matchups

By Neil Adler

CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - FEBRUARY 29: Braxton Key #2 and Mamadi Diakite #25 of the Virginia Cavaliers celebrate a shot in the first half during a game against the Duke Blue Devils at John Paul Jones Arena on February 29, 2020 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - FEBRUARY 29: Braxton Key #2 and Mamadi Diakite #25 of the Virginia Cavaliers celebrate a shot in the first half during a game against the Duke Blue Devils at John Paul Jones Arena on February 29, 2020 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /
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The ACC Basketball regular-season title is still up in the air, and a key match-up will occur on Saturday afternoon between Louisville and Virginia.

TV schedule: Saturday, March 7, 4:00 pm ET. ESPN.
Arena: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va.

Top-25 teams Louisville and Virginia will collide on Saturday afternoon, with Atlantic Coast Conference gloating rights on the line. The No. 22 Cavaliers (22-7, 14-5) welcome the No. 10 Cardinals (24-6, 15-4) to the John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va., for this important league tilt.

Heading into the final weekend of the 2019-20 regular stanza, Louisville and No. 7 Florida State are one game ahead of both Virginia and No. 12 Duke in the ACC standings.

On Saturday, the Seminoles will host Boston College, and North Carolina will travel to the Blue Devils. It’s possible, although not guaranteed, that the conference trophy could get split up in multiple manners, depending on the outcome of these encounters.

The Cavaliers, the defending national champions and winners of seven straight, are the hottest crew in the ACC. Virginia is presently at No. 47 in the NCAA NET system and hovering around a No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the latest bracketology projections.

The Cardinals, at No. 8 in the NET and forecast as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the field of 68, will claim at least a share of the league’s regular-term prize should they defeat the Cavaliers on their own turf, which is no easy task.

On the year, Virginia is a solid 13-3 at home. Louisville, conversely, is 6-4 in true road meetings. Regardless of those metrics, the Cavaliers only have a 43.1 percent chance to best the Cardinals, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.

Overall in their series together that commenced back in 1923-24, Virginia is out in front, 15-5, including a 5-0 mark at John Paul Jones Arena. However, Louisville captured the most-recent bout, 80-73, on Feb. 8 from the KFC Yum! Center.

The Cavaliers boast the premier scoring defense in the ACC and across the country, but their offense often struggles, averaging a mere 57.0 points per affair. That could pose a problem versus the Cardinals, a group with the No. 3 scoring offense and the No. 2 scoring defense in the conference.

Since each unit has a strong defense, and Virginia shoots at a poor clip from the field and deep, second-occasion opportunities via the offensive glass will prove critical. Louisville collects about 4.5 additional rebounds a game, and that edge is something for which the Cardinals must capitalize.

For the Cavaliers, because they don’t score in droves, obtaining easy buckets through turnovers is a must. On defense, they have to guard the 3-point line with precision, as Louisville connects on a commendable 37.6 percent from beyond the arc.

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Virginia is on a roll, that much is clear. Suiting up in Charlottesville is also an advantage, but something tells me that the Cardinals will take care of business and wrap up, at a minimum, part of the ACC regular-campaign hardware.

Prediction: Louisville 70 – Virginia 63