Duke Basketball: Making or breaking potential march to 2020 Final Four

Vernon Carey Jr. at the free-throw line

When the 23 point win versus North Dakota State in the first round is discounted, the three games Duke played in last year’s tournament were decided by a total of four points. There is no question, that a lot of teams that are evenly matched meet up in March, and free-throws are the difference between a one-point win being a one-point loss.

As mentioned, Vernon Carey Jr.’s usage rate means a lot of Duke’s offense ends with Carrey Jr., the percentage of the time he gets touches in even greater. Many of Duke’s possessions end with Carey Jr at the foul-line. The 6 foot 9 Freshman has not only attempted the most free throws, but he has also made the most free throws in the ACC this year.

It would stand to reason that down the stretch in a close game Carey  Jr. is going to touch the ball, the one caveat, he is only 66% from the line. When taking into account players who get significant minutes, Carey Jr. is the second least successful. Despite this, he is still the leading scorer and rebounder, on the team, making it will be increasingly difficult for Coach K to sit him in order to avoid the “Hack-A-Shaq” strategy being implemented by the opposing coach in the final minutes.

You walk a tight rope when your most effective player, has difficulty hitting the most important shots. Carey Jr. sitting in a close game, or missing important shots, could break Duke in March.