Utah State and San Diego State will meet in the Mountain West championship game; will it be the Aggies or the Aztecs hoisting the conference title?
TV schedule: Saturday, March 7, 5:30 pm ET. CBS
Arena: Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada
Following a strong 2019 season, Utah State (25-8) is putting themselves back in the conversation as another feisty mid-major in March. The Aggies have 11 of 13 games, and their offense has been dynamic in the conference tournament to this point. They hung 89 points on an upstart Wyoming team one night after a close win over New Mexico. They’ve dropped two games already to the Aztecs, but will fortune be reversed in round three?
Unquestionably, the player to watch on Utah State is senior guard Sam Merrill (19.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg). Merrill put up 29 points against the Lobos and just added 27 against the Cowboys. Merrill is one of the nation’s best shooters, but he’s not the only cog in this machine. Sophomore center Neemias Queta (12.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg) has been playing great ball since returning from injury. Additionally, sophomore forward Justin Bean (12.3 ppg, 10.4 rpg) continues to develop into a force in the post.
Utah State is 43rd in KenPom and 38th in the NET rankings. They’re a true bubble team and are an above-average team on the boards. If they’re going to win this conference, then they’ll need to have a much better effort on the defensive end against the Aztecs.
While the Aggies were picked in the preseason to win the MWC, San Diego State (30-1) has been the team that’s taken the nation by storm. They won their first 26 games of the season and easily claimed the MWC regular-season title. When this team is firing on all cylinders, there might not be a team in the nation that can handle the Aztecs, but there’s one last challenge before the NCAA Tournament begins.
The biggest name on San Diego State is junior guard Malachi Flynn (17.5 ppg, 5.2 apg), the Mountain West Player of the Year. Flynn led the way with 22 points in their semifinal win over Boise State and had a 36-point game at Nevada last weekend. Other important pieces include junior forward Matt Mitchell (12.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg), a dynamic big man, and senior forward Yanni Wetzell (11.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg), who has really developed since transferring from Vanderbilt. Even if you handle them, there’s also junior guard Jordan Schakel (10.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg), who just had 17 points in the Aztecs’ quarterfinal win against Air Force.
The Aztecs sits at 4th in KenPom and NET and are certainly trending towards a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a conference championship. They play elite defense, they’re one of the best teams in the nation at long-range shooting, and they’ve yet to lose away from home. There’s no question that San Diego State is a powerhouse on both sides of the ball.
For the Aggies, they need Merrill and others to hit some important shots while making smart plays throughout the game. The defense will need to step up, especially with talent all over the court for San Diego State. For the Aztecs, their lockdown defense, especially on Merrill, will be key in this game. The Aztecs can’t afford to keep getting into early holes, especially against a hot-shooting team like the Aggies.
Conference tournaments are crazy adventures, even if the top two seeds have made the finals in the Mountain West. Nobody expected the Aztecs to lose at home to UNLV a few weeks ago, and yet it still happened to them. The Aggies could easily have another hot shooting night, but they cannot win this game with a repeat performance on defense. The Aztecs have faced every challenge head on and I think they’ll be able to add another conference tournament title to those accolades.