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ACC Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions

By Bill McCarthy

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 07: Souvenir basketballs are displayed for sale at the New York Life 2017 ACC Tournament logo at center court at Barclays Center on March 7, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 07: Souvenir basketballs are displayed for sale at the New York Life 2017 ACC Tournament logo at center court at Barclays Center on March 7, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /
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SOUTH BEND, IN – MARCH 04: Trent Forrest #3 of the Florida State Seminoles (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
SOUTH BEND, IN – MARCH 04: Trent Forrest #3 of the Florida State Seminoles (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) /

Key teams

Team to beat — The Florida State Seminoles

The Florida State Seminoles started the season unranked in the AP poll and finished as outright winners of the ACC regular season and a projected No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Coach Leonard Hamilton was named ACC coach of the year and a semifinalist for national coach of the year after, for the second season in a row, his Seminoles broke the Florida State program’s record for regular-season ACC wins. The ACC regular-season championship is also the first in school history.

The Seminoles have everything a team needs to contend in March: A top-notch coach, a star senior point guard, a potential NBA lottery pick, and a lineup that runs 12 players deep. Recent victories — including nine of their last 11 games — have them coasting into the postseason as a serious NCAA Tournament title threat.

As the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, Florida State only has to win three games to cut down the nets in Greensboro. Don’t be surprised if they do.

Top contender — The Duke Blue Devils

Louisville and Virginia could just as easily win the ACC Tournament, but the Duke Blue Devils are the computer’s favorite to do so, according to Kenpom’s advanced analytics.

The defending ACC Tournament champions are led by sophomore Tre Jones and freshman Vernon Carey Jr., both of whom earned All-ACC honors. But the normally star-studded Blue Devils are much deeper than usual, with 10 guys playing more than 12 minutes per game.

Many will knock the Blue Devils for the inconsistencies, especially of late. But the same team that fell on the road to Wake Forest also defeated Kansas, Florida State and Michigan State. When coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team is clicking, they’re dangerous enough to win it all.

That’s why, despite the bad losses, Duke still ranks as a top-10 team in terms of its adjusted efficiency rating, according to Kenpom. The Blue Devils have the depth and athleticism to wear teams down on defense, and they have enough weapons to mix and match on the offensive end. The key is whether a third player can consistently step up alongside Jones and Carey.

If the Blue Devils find that third guy — whether it’s Cassius Stanley, Wendell Moore Jr. or somebody else — then they’ll likely pose the toughest challenge to Florida State. The two heavyweights would meet in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

Team likeliest to surprise — Notre Dame

After two down years in which the Fighting Irish missed the NCAA Tournament, coach Mike Brey has this season’s squad on the wrong side of the bubble yet again.

But Notre Dame has won eight of its last 12 games, and seven of its 10 ACC losses came by five points or fewer. A few bounces gone the other way could have had Notre Dame squarely in the NCAA Tournament and widely accepted as a top ACC Tournament contender.

Instead, the Fighting Irish enter as a dark horse. Led by seniors John Mooney, T.J. Gibbs, Rex Pflueger and Juwan Durham, they are one of the more experienced teams in the conference.

That experience — combined with Brey’s coaching ability and a favorable ACC Tournament draw — could spell an upset or two if the Fighting Irish get a little lucky.