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Bracketology 2020: Northern Iowa, UCLA, Texas in trouble after tough week

By Andrew Dieckhoff

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 15: Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins talks to head coach Mick Cronin while playing Stanford Cardinal at Pauley Pavilion on January 15, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 15: Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins talks to head coach Mick Cronin while playing Stanford Cardinal at Pauley Pavilion on January 15, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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BOULDER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 10: Spencer Haldeman #30 of the Northern Iowa Panthers (Photo by Lizzy Barrett/Getty Images)
BOULDER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 10: Spencer Haldeman #30 of the Northern Iowa Panthers (Photo by Lizzy Barrett/Getty Images) /

Northern Iowa Panthers (23-6, 14-4 MVC)

In what could turn out to be one of the most unfair and heart-wrenching results of the college basketball season, the Panthers fell in their Missouri Valley Conference opener, along with fellow top seeds Loyola Chicago and Southern Illinois. But while the Ramblers and Salukis had no other choice but to lament the lost opportunity to sneak in through the automatic bid, Northern Iowa is still in the conversation to be an at-large selection in one week’s time.

For the last few weeks, UNI had been projected as the MVC champion and had ascended to an 11 seed in the BracketMatrix. This positioning put them ahead of at least two of the Last Four In—but only barely. It was easier to be generous with the Panthers’ seeding when they were an automatic qualifier. But the massive (and genuinely unexpected) question now facing Northern Iowa is whether their resume will compare favorably to the rest of the at-large field on the bubble.

Northern Iowa is still hanging around in the NET Top 50 for now, but their collection of wins is much less impressive than many of their peers’. The Panthers’ best win was a December road victory over Colorado, but that’s it for their Quadrant 1 success. UNI does sport a 3-2 record in Quadrant 2 games, but a total of four wins across the top two tiers doesn’t bode well for this club.

In addition to dealing with their own loss, the Panthers were denied any help from the Buffaloes over the weekend, as Colorado fell in overtime to Utah. To make matters even worse, South Carolina—the team on the losing side of UNI’s second-best win—lost to a lowly Vanderbilt squad on the road. At a time when Northern Iowa needs all the help they can get, having their losses depreciate in value is a step in the exact wrong direction.

It is going to be a long week in Cedar Falls awaiting the selection committee’s final decision on the Panthers’ fate. Northern Iowa could be a prime candidate to receive the same treatment as last year’s Belmont squad. Those Bruins were sent to the First Four after falling to Murray State—but this UNI team isn’t quite as good, and they were bounced in the first round, not the championship. So, while it may be tempting to draw the comparison, the situation is bleaker for the Panthers.

The bubble isn’t just shrinking for UNI, though. High-major programs around the country are also feeling the squeeze, including our next Bracketology Loser.

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