Bracketology 2020: Possible high-major bid thieves in conference tournaments

March is a time to celebrate Cinderella mid-majors and Davids slaying Goliaths. But for Bracketology bubble teams, the high major bid thief can be devastating to NCAA Tournament hopes.

Every March spins narratives of mid-major “Cinderellas” magically defying the odds and marrying the prince or of Davids slaying mighty Goliaths. It’s what we all love about this time of year: unpredictability, underdogs stories, and chaos. It’s why we love watching conference tournaments from one-bid leagues where the sheer joy of kids celebrating victory and the pure heartbreak of kids lamenting defeat tugs at the heartstrings. There is no better example of a one true outcome event than a single-elimination tournament, and no month brings more to the table in that regard than March.

Unlikely upsets in conference tournaments are not merely within the purview of mid-majors. In fact, automatic bid thievery from high-major conferences likely causes more damage to the hopes and dreams of Bubble teams than does the equivalent from mid-majors because most high-major conference tournament favorites are significantly more likely to have at-large worthy resumes.

Bradley captured the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship on Sunday after the top-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers fell earlier in the tournament putting it squarely on the Bubble. Northern Iowa faces a long week until Selection Sunday where its fate will be decided by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Conversely, Utah St. took its Bubble resume into its own hands when it upset San Diego St. in the Mountain West tournament championship game securing its place in the 2020 NCAA Tournament field. The Bubble giveth, the Bubble taketh away.

Last year, Oregon surprised the world by winning the Pac-12 Tournament championship and earning that league’s automatic bid. As the world found out, this bumped mid-major darling UNC Greensboro from the at-large field. Oregon rode its wave of conference tournament success into the Sweet 16, ultimately falling to eventual NCAA Champion Virginia.

So as we embark on Championship Week, let’s take a look at some possible unlikely conference tournament champions that could wreak havoc on teams with bubbly resumes. Our proprietary Bid Thievery Index measures our completely subjective view of the likelihood of one of the following teams wins its conference tournament championship.