NCAA Basketball: Duke, Maryland title chances lead Monday Morning Mailbag

What are the biggest NCAA Basketball questions you have this week? We answer them in a new Monday Morning Mailbag, including looks at Duke, Maryland & more.

NCAA Basketball’s Championship Week got off to a thrilling start this weekend as five teams – Utah State, Belmont, Bradley, Winthrop, and Liberty – have punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament by winning their respective conference tournaments.

26 more automatic bids will be handed out between now and Sunday afternoon, highlighting one of the best week’s in the sport. Of course, that leads into the tournament itself, and that’s what almost all of your questions this week are about.

Let’s dive in.

Do you have a college basketball or NBA Draft question you want to have answered? Join the conversation on Twitter @brauf33. Thanks as always to those who contributed this week.

I’m still not sold on Duke and think there’s still a decent chance they get bounced from the NCAA Tournament in the first weekend (depending on matchups, of course). Robinson has given them a tremendous lift off the bench with his energy and three-point shooting, which has been big because Duke really needed to improve their spacing. That said, as good of a story as it is, the fact that the Blue Devils have to rely on a former walk-on to play a big role tells you about their current state.

Withers ended up changing this to the 7/8 line, as that is where a majority of bracketologists have them now. Honestly, I think they’ll have to get to the ACC Tournament title game. They don’t have to win it, but beating Notre Dame or Boston College in the quarterfinals and then *likely* Louisville in the semifinals would be enough to solidify them as at least a No. 6 seed in my mind.

For what it’s worth, our Lukas Harkins already has Virginia as a No. 6 in his latest bracketology update.

Maryland‘s convincing win over Michigan on Sunday was certainly a step in the right direction. I’m still confident in the Terps, but I do want to see how they play in the Big Ten Tournament because so much in that conference has been determined simply by the location of a game (home vs. away). Maryland doesn’t have to win the tournament, but I do want to see them at least play well.

I will take the field. If we go by Harkins’ projections, Seton Hall would be the No. 3 seed and Oregon would be the No. 4 in the West, and I think both of those teams would get past the Zags and Aztecs.

For the record, I would pick Oregon over both Gonzaga and San Diego State as long as Payton Pritchard is healthy, and it certainly looks like the Ducks will end up in that West Region as well.

I think Liberty is looking at a No. 12 seed. They fit the mold from a reputation, experience, and record standpoint, but the fact they’re only 4-2 against Quad 1/2/3 teams (and have two Quad 4 losses) will keep them from rising to a No. 11 or higher.

I don’t think five mid-majors will make it past the first weekend. I think we’ll only see probably around four, and that includes those teams you mentioned. But if I had to rank five in order of my confidence in them, I’d go:

1) Utah State
2) East Tennessee State
3) Stephen F. Austin
4) Richmond (assuming they get in)
5) Vermont

I think they have to make it to the SEC Tournament title game, and they may have to win it depending on what happens with bubble teams elsewhere. The problem is that the Razorbacks need another Quad 1 win or two in order to move the needle, and those opportunities won’t come for Arkansas until the quarterfinals against LSU and a potential semifinal matchup with Auburn.

Winning those two games should be enough but, again, that scenario involves no stolen bids and no other bubble teams picking up unexpected quality wins – and you know something crazy is going to happen because March.