Atlantic 10 Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions

Key Players

Obi Toppin – Dayton Flyers

This one is obvious. He’s the best player in the league and he’s at least on the shortlist for National Player of the Year. It’s rare for the A10 to draw a player of his caliber, so he should be appreciated for these last few games of his college career. His stats are obviously good at 20p, 8r, 2a per game, but a lot of his game doesn’t show up on the stat sheet.

Toppin just consistently finds ways to make plays that lead points, whether tipping offensive rebounds out to guys on the perimeter or making the right pass out of the post for an extra pass and a three. He’ll be the A10 Player of the Year and, barring a massive upset, should be the MVP of this tournament.

Tre Mitchell – UMass Minutemen

Mitchell went from being a promising freshman at the beginning of the season to being a top-five player during conference play. He’s the reason the Minutemen finally have a break from playing on Wednesday, and he could be enough to even get them past VCU and bring the consequential Dayton matchup into “who knows?” territory.

Whatever happens in Brooklyn, he’s been ridiculous and he deserves a spot on the all-conference first team when that comes out. He can work the post as well as anyone in the league, shoot the three-ball, find open shots out of double-teams, and make emphatic blocks on the other end. His 34-point, 12 rebound performance against Rhode brought his (conference) averages to 20.3 and 8 per game.

Jalen Crutcher – Dayton Flyers

Crutcher is somewhat overshadowed on the national stage because of Obi’s highlight-reel dunks, but a strong case could be made that he’s been the best point guard in the league this season. I have him as a player to watch in Brooklyn, though, not because of his reliability running the offense, but mainly because of his knack for coming through in the biggest moments.

Crutcher‘s game-winning three against Saint Louis will come to mind for most people reading this, but there have been more than a few games this season in which he’s gone on single-handed runs that propelled the previously stagnant Flyers to victory. From a coaching perspective, there’s no one in the league I’d feel better about with the ball in their hands if it’s a tight game in the second half.

Fatts Russell – Rhode Island Rams

Fatts is probably the most valuable player to his respective team in terms of how they play when he’s on versus how they play when he’s struggling. He’s been cold lately, and therefore so too have the Rams, but when he’s hitting shots he’s one of the most electric players in the league. Rhody made noise in this tournament last year and they’ll (clearly, as a 3-seed) be able to do that again this year if Fatts can regain his confidence on offense. On the year, despite this recent drought, he’s still averaging ~19 points, three rebounds, and five assists per game. He dropped 30 on VCU and 29 on the Bonnies.

Jon Axel Gudmundsson – Davidson Wildcats

It’s easy to forget about JAG because of Davidson’s failure to live up to expectations, but there’s a reason he was a consensus preseason first-teamer in October. At 14.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game he has one of the most well-rounded stat lines in the league, and he’s been on an absolute tear shooting the ball over the Cats’ last five games.

Over that stretch, he’s averaging 18.4 points per game and shooting 46.1% (12/26) from deep. Because of some key injuries, Davidson probably won’t have the depth to pull off four games in a row, but if he and Kellan Grady can both play to their (extremely high) ceilings, they’ll have as good a shot as anybody not-named-Dayton of heading home with hardware and an auto-bid.