Atlantic 10 Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions
By Stu Luddecke
Teams to Watch
The Team to Beat: Dayton
It would be a massive surprise if the Flyers get sent home from this tournament empty-handed. There are certain teams that are capable of beating Obi and co., but even they would need to be hot from deep and playing some inspired defense for 40 minutes. A lottery-pick forward isn’t the only reason the Flyers are tough – Trey Landers doesn’t jump off the page statistically but is arguably the most versatile player in the league, and Jalen Crutcher is an A10 first-teamer running the point.
The rest of the Flyers roster is filled out by a solid mix of versatile talent and veteran leadership. Ibi Watson, Rodney Chatman, and Ryan Mikesell are all capable of picking up the pace when the stars are struggling. Any coach that wants to take the Flyers down is going to need size down low to mitigate Obi’s offense and possibly get Dayton’s frontcourt into foul trouble. Depth at those positions is one of their few weaknesses.
They’ll also need to be able to turn the Flyers over and interrupt up the passing lanes – Dayton is 14th in the country as far as Assists/Made Field Goal%, so forcing them into isolation offense (much easier said than done) could be the key to knocking them out.
Two Real Contenders: Richmond & Saint Louis
The Spiders are one of the hottest teams in the conference at the perfect time. They’ve won 9 out of their last 10 and have had, according to Kenpom, the A10’s best defense and second-best offense throughout conference play. Four players – Grant Golden, Jacob Gilyard, Blake Francis, Nick Sherod – account for the vast majority of the Spider’s statistical production, but those four are incredibly tough to slow down even without much help.
Golden and Gilyard are both possible A10 first-teamers, Blake Francis is averaging over 17 points per game, and Nick Sherod is putting up 12.7 on a league-best 43.8% from deep. Defense was a concern coming into the season, but Coach Mooney’s obviously figured things out on that end too – Richmond is 20th in steal%, 44th in opponent 3-pt% and a solid 65th in overall defensive efficiency on Kenpom. It’s tough to see any team besides Dayton taking them out, but the key to doing so will be forcing them to play a transition game so they have trouble setting up in the halfcourt, and tenaciously defending the three-point line.
Saint Louis is physically dominant enough to beat anybody if they can slow the game down and make it a rock fight. The Billikens defend well, clean up the glass on both ends, and have a relatively easy time scoring inside the arc (58.9% of points from 2-pt attempts, 7th most in the country).
Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French are both walking double-doubles, and Javonte Perkins has developed into one of the most consistent offensive threats in the conference. SLU will be a tough out if they’re able to impose their will and play at their pace – they took Dayton to OT and have road wins against Rhode Island and Richmond – but they’re vulnerable when they’re not able to physically bully their opponents. Free throw shooting is another obvious flaw – the Billikens are dead last in the nation as far as FT%, and those woes have cost them the game on more than one occasion.
Still, if you’re going to bet on one team to take out Dayton, the Billikens are probably the most well-equipped for the task and they’ve been playing good basketball lately, which is ultimately the most important factor. Over their current five-game winning streak, they’ve won by an average margin of 15.4 points per game.
Dark Horse?
There are five teams you’ll see on Thursday that are capable of going on a run – Duquesne, Saint Bonaventure, Davidson, VCU, and UMass.
Saint Bonaventure and Davidson are listed for the same reasons that they always are; they are ridiculously well-coached, and that means a heck-of-a-lot on this stage. They also have outstanding Point Guard play between Kyle Lofton (Bonas) and Jon Axel Gudmundsson (Davidson). UMass is part of this group because of Tre Mitchell, who is making a strong case for being the league’s second-best player and is reasons 1-10 for UMass being 7-5 over their last 12 games.
Over that stretch, he averaged 21.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Duquesne is here because they’re rock solid in just about every facet. They play to the level of their competition, but just as they could lose to a Fordham or GW, they could also pull off an upset over anyone (yes, including Dayton) if they’re hot for 40 minutes. VCU has looked rough recently, but they still have a formidable amount of talent and experience (especially postseason experience) on their roster, and star Point Guard Marcus Evans, who’s missed five out of the last seven due to injury, will be returning to action.
Of all the aforementioned squads, 6-seed Duquesne has the best shot to take home the hardware. The Dukes finished the season with a loss to Richmond at home, but they were on a three-game win-streak before that which included road wins at St. Bonaventure and VCU. As far as their path to the auto-bid, on Thursday they’ll face the winner of George Washington/Fordham. Win that and they’ll play the struggling Rhode Island Rams on Friday. After that, anything can happen, and the more days that pass, the more chances they have of Dayton being knocked off by somebody else.