Bracketology 2020: Examining mid-major basketball at-large profiles

BYU Cougars

23-8 | NET: 9 | KPI/SOR Avg: 27.5 | BPI/POM/SAG Avg: 14.7

The Cougars are one of a handful of teams where the computer-based predictive metrics are more favorable than the metrics meant to track resume, body of work, or essentially performance against the schedule you faced. BYU also can be explained by another dichotomy: BYU with Yoeli Childs versus BYU without Yoeli Childs.

Childs missed the first nine games of the season due to an NCAA suspension, and another three due to injury. In games with Childs in the lineup, BYU is 16-3, after losing a heartbreaker in the WCC semifinals to St. Mary’s. In games without Childs, BYU is 7-5. The Selection Committee makes clear that it evaluates teams for performance with and without its full complement of players. BYU is at full-strength and won nine in a row prior to the 1-point WCC semifinal loss, and that record includes a home victory over Gonzaga.

The resume is devoid of any damaging losses, with each of its eight losses coming in Quads 1 or 2, and with five of those coming without Childs. This is most certainly an at-large team. Our most recent Bracketology has BYU on the 5-seed line, and I think that’s right.

The thing to monitor with BYU is that it only can play regional sites with Thursday/Saturday games, so that leaves it open to the Midwest and West regions, and possible seed line movement. With Gonzaga likely to be the 1-seed out west, Bracketing Principles will likely push BYU into the Midwest Region, whether on the 4- or 5-seed line.

Bracketology Prediction: 5-seed, Midwest Region