Stanford Basketball might not have even made the NCAA Tournament this season, but its statistical profile suggests it could be much better in 2020-21.
The Stanford Cardinal lost their last three games of the season, capped off by a perplexing 63-51 Pac-12 tournament loss to California. This disappointing conclusion might be making it difficult for Stanford Basketball fans to be super optimistic heading into 2020-21. There’s reason, however, to think the Cardinal could be significantly better next season, particularly on the offensive end.
(Credit to KenPom for statistics)
First off, the Cardinal were a very young team, ranking 331st in experience per KenPom. If everyone returns (no seniors on roster), it’s difficult to imagine Stanford not improving significantly. Tyrell Terry is the main question mark, as he could potentially declare for the draft.
There’s also a less obvious reason to buy into Stanford. Although the Cardinal only ranked 143rd offensively last season, the team ranked 27th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Essentially, Stanford shot a high percentage from two and three, but struggles in the other areas of offense weighed down their ranking: turnovers (298th), offensive rebounding (328th) and free throw percentage (204th).
It’s hard to argue “making shots” isn’t the number one key to offensive success, and the Cardinal already has this figured out. If the team can maintain a strong eFG% next season and see some improvement in these other areas, a top 20 offense is definitely possible. Throw in the fact that Stanford was already great defensively this past season (7th nationally), Jerod Haase’s squad could be in business.
Of course, this is all easier said than done, but there’s some precedent in recent seasons of strong eFG% teams significantly improving their offenses the following year.
Virginia Tech
The Hokies were a solid offensive team in 2017-18, ranking 28th in the country. This was driven by their 6th-best eFG%, but the team’s 308th-best offensive rebounding and 195th-best free throw percentage held it back. Buzz Williams’ squad earned an 8-seed but fell in the first round to Alabama.
The following season, Virginia Tech maintained a great eFG% (14th) and significantly improved its offensive rebounding and free throw shooting. This drove the offense’s rise from 28th to 11th, something that helped them earn a 4-seed and a trip to the sweet sixteen.
Dayton
The Flyers were quite under the radar last season, losing in the first round of the NIT as a 5-seed. Offensively, however, there were some very encouraging signs. Despite only ranking 43rd offensively, Dayton had the 8th-best eFG% (2nd in 2-point percentage). The offense was held back by its 197th-ranked turnover percentage and 239th-ranked free throw shooting.
This past season, the Flyers’ offense exploded, catapulting to 2nd nationally in offense (Gonzaga 1st). This was driven by an even better eFG% and steady improvement to most of its weaknesses the prior year. Dayton didn’t get a chance to make a run in March, but it would have likely earned a 1-seed, an accomplishment that shouldn’t be forgotten.
Creighton
Similar to Dayton, the Bluejays weren’t on the radar much last season and had to settle for a trip to the NIT. Also similar to the Flyers, Creighton had a top-ten eFG% but had its offense weighed down by turnovers and poor foul shooting.
And ALSO similar to Dayton, the Blue Jays significantly improved in these areas this past season, jumping from 183rd to 25th in turnovers and 273rd to 59th in free throw shooting. Creighton likely wouldn’t have earned a 1-seed like Dayton, but a 2-seed would have been very conceivable (and impressive all the same).
Next Season
As discussed, Stanford’s 27th-ranked eFG% and 7th-ranked defense could make it very dangerous next season. It seems to be the best bet to play the Virginia Tech/Dayton/Creighton role next season, but for reference, below were this year’s other top eFG% teams.
A few other notable potential candidates include North Texas (34th in offense, 5th in eFG%), Richmond (53rd in offense, 30th in eFG%) and Belmont (97th offense, 10th eFG%).
It’s unclear which team will make the jump offensively, but at least one is sure to do so.