NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions
West Region (top-half)
(1) Gonzaga vs. (8) Marquette
Biggest Keys
Danny Priest
#1 – Contain Markus Howard
This probably goes without saying, but if the Zags’ want to continue their march towards a national title, slowing down Markus Howard will be a major key to their success. Howard (27.8 ppg) is pound for pound one of the best scorers in the nation. Gonzaga has multiple bodies they can throw his way and stopping him from getting into a rhythm is going to be vital to their chances of winning.
#2 – Defend the three-point line
The Zags only lost two games all season (Michigan and BYU), on both of those occasions they gave up more than 10 three-pointers made. The Golden Eagles average 10 threes made per game and they have a host of shooters who can get hot from deep. Howard is their key, but other players such as Sacar Anim, Brendan Bailey, and Jamal Crain all shoot over 38 percent from deep. How well Gonzaga guards the three-point line could make a big difference in the game.
#3 – Winning the rebound battle
Gonzaga should have themselves an advantage in the rebounding department and they’ll need that, but it is still going to come down to execution. If Killian Tillie and Filip Petrusev can control the glass for Gonzaga, that will also allow them to dictate pace and flow. Rebounding will function back to the first two keys of keeping the Golden Eagles out of any sort of rhythm. The more boards Gonzaga grabs, they better shape they will be in.
Game Predictions
Jason Burgess
We all love seeing Markus Howard on the basketball floor, but I think this matchup with Gonzaga is where his career will come to an end. Mark Few’s Bulldogs are just too deep offensively for Marquette to keep up with and that is what will ultimately allow Gonzaga to move on. Gonzaga is going to dominate the defensive glass, but if Marquette doesn’t shoot at least 45% from the field, this could be a blowout.
Gonzaga 78, Marquette 63
Timmy Miller
I’m not going to overcomplicate this. I just don’t see Marquette as the type of team to knock off Gonzaga. Marquette prefers to get up and down the court, which is something Gonzaga did better than about any other team this season. It’s pretty hard for me to envision this Marquette team stopping the Zags offense enough to get Markus Howard and the Marquette offense a multitude of easy buckets. However, I will say I think Howard would find a way to have another 30 point performance.
But, ultimately this Marquette team didn’t inspire much confidence with a 1-7 finish in the Big East. As for the Bulldogs, this feels like a game Killian Tillie could have his way with whoever tries to guard him. The Golden Eagles might go on a couple quick runs with Howard draining some long-range shots, but Gonzaga pulls away on strength of a huge second half for an easy win.
Gonzaga 97, Marquette 73
Erik Mauro
This matchup favors Gonzaga in many ways. Notably, the Bulldogs lead the nation in scoring at 87 PPG. Markus Howard and some other guys average 78 PPG for Marquette.
The Golden Eagles have Markus Howard, and the Zags have Filip Petrusev, Killian Tillie, Corey Kispert, and all five starters averaging double figures. True freshman Drew Timme and grad transfer Admon Gilder contribute 10 more points apiece off the bench. This team can score at will and shoot teams out of the gym.
Gonzaga makes an astounding 52 percent of their shots from the floor while shooting 39 percent from long range! Howard averages 28 PPG and only one other player has double figures for Marquette. They only make 43 percent of their shots from the floor and are not nearly as efficient as the Bulldogs.
Given the depth and balanced scoring that Gonzaga has, they will be able to key on Howard and make the other four players on the floor beat them, and given Gonzaga’s length, they won’t be able to do it, and the Dogs pull away easily
Gonzaga 89, Marquette 67
Gonzaga gets the 3-0 sweep
(4) Oregon vs. (5) Ohio State
Biggest Keys
Jacob Zinkula
The three biggest keys to this matchup are 1) Will any Oregon defender be able to defend Kaleb Wesson and his inside-out game? 2) Will Payton Pritchard’s deep step-back 3-pointer, a shot that is almost impossible to guard, be falling? And 3) Will team-best offensive rebounder Kyle Young make the Ducks pay for failing to protect the glass (307th nationally)?
Cody Larson
1. 3-point shooting. Oregon ranks 2nd in the nation in 3-point percentage; Ohio State ranks 23rd. Both teams rely on the deep ball, whoever makes the most of that will have a key edge in the matchup.
2. Dante vs. Wesson. Kaleb Wesson is Ohio State’s best offensive weapon and has been one of the harder to stop bigs in college. He matches up against a freshman in N’faly Dante, Oregon’s best rim protector. This is one team’s best offender vs. the other’s best defender; hence why it is so key.
3. Peyton Pritchard. Nobody has been more trustworthy in the clutch this season than Pritchard has. In a game that looks to be an even matchup, Pritchard finding his clutch gene once more might be necessary.
Jake Verboven
Contain the Stars
This one goes for the Buckeyes and Ducks as they both have a clear star they rely on for the majority of their production as a team. For the Ducks they must plan against Kaleb Wesson, a 6’9 270 pound forward who has given the Big Ten’s best some major problems throughout conference play. Wesson is a matchup nightmare, as he can not only use his frame and back to the basket game to score but has a great shooting touch (42.5%) from the outside. Expect Dana Altman to rotate his long athletic forwards on him, sending doubles when he gets deep in the post then scrambling back out to the Buckeye shooters.
For the Buckeyes, they have to deal with a man who has put his team on his back over and over again during the 2019-20 season. Payton Pritchard may have ended up being the national player of the year if it wasn’t for a few game stretch in the middle of the season where he struggled. The West Linn native will be the focal point of the Oregon offense and should see a fair share of doubles and traps out of the pick and roll to get the ball out of his hand. With the inconsistent Will Richardson as the Ducks only other facilitator, the Buckeyes will take their chances putting an extra man on Pritchard
Play of Andre Wesson
The older brother of Kaleb, Andre is the X factor for a Buckeye team that put together a good stretch of games going into the NCAA tournament, winning six of their last eight. The senior will most definitely not want this to be his last game as a member of the Buckeyes and will do what is needed of him to help his team. Andre is the second-best 3 point shooter on the team (42.2%) behind his brother and also helps in a big way on the boards, normally while dealing with players bigger than him.
3 Point Shooting
This is important for both teams, but I feel like it applies more directly to the Ducks. Oregon is a top 5 three-point shooting team in the country at 39.6%. They have 3 guards shooting over 41% from behind the arc, all playing starters minutes. Ohio State will have to send help on Pritchard’s drives to the rim, leaving perimeter players with good looks at the rim. Mathis, Richardson, and Duarte have been important pieces to this team the whole year but will have to hit big shots to keep the Ducks season alive.
Game Predictions
Matthew Winick
Of the many travesties that come with a canceled March Madness, chief among them is not seeing Payton Pritchard work his magic in his senior season. A player who has stepped up in previous tournaments was clutch all year, and there is no reason to believe that it would have changed this go-round.
Ohio State fought all year in the devastatingly tough Big Ten, and they got better down the stretch. With that being said, this is more about the Ducks than it is the Buckeyes. Between Pritchard and budding star Will Richardson manning the guard spots, this team is as steady as they come. Add in the offensive spark of Chris Duarte and Anthony Mathis, and its easy to see how Oregon ran through the Pac-12.
Above all, this is mostly a leap of faith in Pritchard. I would have had Oregon going to at least the Elite Eight in my bracket, and as long as #3 plays for the Ducks, I can never count Oregon out in March.
Oregon 78, Ohio State 69
Brian Rauf
Ohio State’s defense slipped following their rise in the early part of the season, and they’ll need their defense to be at its best against Oregon’s high-powered offensive attack. Even then, the Ducks have the athletes to match up with the Buckeyes on the perimeter, size to handle Kaleb Wesson down low, and more depth. Oh yeah, they have that Payton Pritchard guy, too, who no one has been able to slow this year. He’ll lead Oregon to a comfortable win in this one.
Oregon 84, Ohio State 72
Jason Kinander
In a matchup of two teams that started the year extremely strong, look for the matchup between Oregon point guard Payton Pritchard and Ohio State center Kaleb Wesson to be the big storyline. Neither of the two wants this to be their last college game, so look for both of them to be difference-makers on offense. Both teams are extremely deep, but Oregon’s three-point shooting will be the difference, as an Anthony Mathis three-pointer with two seconds left will give the Ducks a win.