NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions
West Region (bottom-half)
(11) East Tennessee State vs (3) Seton Hall
Biggest Keys
Bryan Mauro
Seton Hall: Establish their Dominance
Too many times this season, the Pirates have started slow and have had to dig out of a double-digit hole early. Quincy McKnight, Romario Gill and Myles Powell need to take this game over quickly. If they do that it will be a win for Seton Hall if they start slow. The Pirates are going to have to sweat one out.
ETSU- Start Fast and Make Shots
ETSU is 30-4 and one of the better teams in the country. They have a balanced attack and a team led by seniors. If they can make shots early and gain some confidence it is going to go a long ways. Making shots is going to help them in another way as well. Seton Hall likes to have Romaro Gill live in the paint and block a ton of shots. If the Buccaneers can make shots it may force Seton Hall to move Gill out of the paint to try and stop the ETSU attack.
Seton Hall- Bench Step Up
One of the biggest factors in this game is going to be the play of each teams Bench. Everyone knows about the five exceptional starters for the Pirates. The Bench is very underrated and is where this game is going to be won and lost. Jared Rhoden/ Myles Cale, Ike Obiagu, Shavar Reynolds, Tyrese Samuel and Anthony Nelson are going to need to play quality minutes and spell the starters. Not many teams have the amount of depth that Seton Hall does and they need to put it to use in the tournament.
Joe Weidenburner
Can ETSU shut down Myles Powell?
-The tourney is where stars shine and a matchup of this nature is made for the star power of Myles Powell. He has the ability to take over any game he plays. Will he drop 35 en route to an easy Seton Hall victory, or can ETSU shut him down and force the likes of Sandro Mamukelashvili and Qunicy McKnight to step up and carry the load?
Who wins the battle inside?
-ETSU is one of the nation’s best at offensive 2-point field goal %, ranking 11th nationally according to KenPom, but not very good defensively on 2-pointers, ranking 250th. Seton Hall is 21st per KenPom in 2-point field goal % defense and 9th in defensive Block %, much of that due to Romaro Gill’s imposing presence inside, where he ranks 5th nationally in Block %. Seton Hall enjoys a big size advantage. Can Romaro Gill neutralize the Buccaneers’ efficiency inside or will ETSU have a field day in the paint and continue their efficient inside scoring?
Turnovers
-In a game that should be tight down to the wire, turnovers will be critical. ETSU excels in forcing turnovers ranking top-25 in defensive TO% and top-15 in total turnovers forced. Both teams are generally around the national average in turnovers so ETSU’s defensive TO% edge could prove critical forcing a costly Seton Hall mistake late.
Connor Gilbert
ETSU: Keep teeing off from 3
ETSU is no joke. The gaudy 30-4 record has been pointed out plenty, but what’s been pointed out less is that the Buccaneers are deep and loaded with shooters and experience. With five seniors and six players shooting over 35% from 3, they’re hard to dismiss in any matchup. And if things start looking dire, just keep stretching the floor and shooting. The looks will come.
Seton Hall: Asserting themselves down low
Romaro Gill (7’2’’, 3.2 BPG) and Ike Obiago (7’2’’, 1.2 BPG) comprise a massive frontcourt that creates matchup problems for almost any team in the country, especially one like that ETSU that plays its biggest players minimally. The Buccaneers’ two seven-footers, Octavion Corley (5.8 MPG) and Lucas N’Guessan (10.0 MPG) likely won’t have the experience necessary to deal with Gill and Obiago, and if ETSU plays small ball as they have in the past, Seton Hall will need to take advantage of the ramifications on both ends of the court.
Seton Hall: Myles Powell
Seton Hall has had lackluster offensive stretches that have put them in perilous positions multiple times in big games as of late, and it’s cost them — (see the tape in losses to Villanova and Creighton). It’s unrealistic to assume that trend will suddenly stop, considering that the Pirates have lost four of their last seven prior to the tourney. But when those dry spells happen, the ball usually ends up in Myles Powell’s hands. He needs to convert and keep his team in a rhythm for them to assert themselves and hold on to a lead.
Game Predictions
Danny Preist
A regular-season 30 win team and with three guys who can score the rock on any given night, the Buccaneers of East Tennessee State are no average 11 seed. While the Buccaneers have a host of guys to score the rock and provide solid contributions on both ends, the Pirates have one of the stars of the tournament: Myles Powell. I expect this one to be close, but down the stretch, my money is on the senior in Powell to step up and deliver when his team needs it the most. Coming towards the final chapter of his collegiate career, expect Powell to put on a show.
Seton Hall 81, East Tennessee State 77
Connor Hope
What Steve Forbes has done this season at ETSU should be rightfully commended. Finishing near the Top 25, with an NCAA Tournament win and SoCon Championship indicates just how far the mid-major conference team has come. With that said, they are running into a Seton Hall team that will not be easily beaten. Despite having some size in Lucas N’Guessan, Romaro Gill should have a field day against the relatively small Buccaneers roster.
While the best strategy against the Pirates would be to make Myles Powell beat you from the perimeter, the likelihood of ETSU shutting down the other four players on the floor while providing help defense in the paint is slim. Myles Powell may not be able to win from deep but his strength when attacking the rim should get it done for Kevin Willard’s squad.
Seton Hall 72, ETSU 67
Tristan Freeman
The Buccaneers have everything you want in a mid-major Cinderella. Great defense, depth, star power and a head coach who’s not afraid of the moment. It’ll be a fight regardless of who they play but I have a feeling that they’ll struggle against the scoring power of Myles Powell and the defensive juggernaut that is Romaro Gill. East Tennessee State hasn’t seen a team like the Pirates and by the time they adjust, it’ll be too late.
Seton Hall 74, ETSU 67
Seton Hall gets the 3-0 win
(10) Indiana vs (2) San Diego State
Biggest Keys
Neil Adler
The No. 10 seed, Big Ten Conference member Indiana, has a huge task ahead as the Hoosiers seek to knock off second-seeded San Diego State from the Mountain West Conference in the round of 32. Here are three keys to this enticing match-up:
Indiana faces suffocating defense
The Hoosiers are not an overpowering offensive outfit, as Indiana only averages 71.4 points per contest, a relatively sub-par number. To make matters even more challenging, the Hoosiers will go toe to toe with an Aztecs crew that allows just 59.5 points a game, which is among the best across the country. How Indiana scores sufficient points to upset San Diego State is a pivotal question mark. Conversely, the Hoosiers give up 66.7 points per affair, and the Aztecs produce 74.8 points. The scoring gaps between these two units is absolutely something to monitor.
The 3-point line discrepancy
San Diego State possesses a decisive edge from beyond the arc. As a team, the Aztecs connect on a stellar 38.0 percent from downtown. Four primary players on the San Diego State roster hit on 37 percent or better from deep, and that means Indiana’s defense will have to remain extremely active on the perimeter. On the flip side, the Hoosiers are fairly pedestrian from 3-point range. Indiana, collectively, shoots 32.6 percent with the long ball. By extension, only a pair of Hoosiers who receive significant court action make 35 percent or more of their 3-point attempts.
Paint scoring to offset Malachi Flynn
Indiana has a solid forward tandem of freshman Trayce Jackson-Davis and junior Justin Smith, and those guys must dominate the interior. Jackson-Davis, at 13.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per meeting, along with Smith, who generates 10.4 points and 5.2 boards, will need to capitalize on their skills in the paint to counter the talented guards within the Aztecs’ line-up, led by junior Malachi Flynn, who is on the AP All-America second squad. Flynn, at 17.6 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists per bout, will thoroughly test the Hoosiers’ defense. For Indiana, second-chance points via the offensive glass, and keeping San Diego State away from the charity stripe, where it excels, are also important facets to the Hoosiers emerging victorious.
Logan Butts
The first key to this matchup is obvious – San Diego State’s defense. If the Aztecs can lock down Indiana like they have most opponents on the season, then the Hoosiers and their middling offense won’t stand a chance. Key number two will be Indiana’s big-game ability. The Hoosiers racked up 12 losses on the season, but all 12 losses came to NCAA Tournament level teams, and they had a knack for knocking off the best teams they played. They took down Michigan State and Florida State at home. If the version of Indiana that won those three games shows up, then the 10-seed could advance. Key number three is the top player in this game – Malachi Flynn. If the Second-Team Consensus All-American sets the tone on offense and defense early and often, San Diego State will take this one in a walk.
Jacob Salcido
1) Lockdown defense
The Hoosiers need to contain Malachi Flynn. If Flynn gets going, he will take over the game and lead SDSU to a victory. That being said, Matt Mitchell and Yanni Wetzell will make things hard on Indiana. How this pair is limited will influence the game greatly. Likewise, the Hoosiers have a balanced rotation, albeit more spread-out in scoring capability. The Aztecs need to play focused defense, as the ball will likely be passed around quite a bit.
2) Inside game
The Hoosiers seem to rely a bit on scoring inside the paint. Aztec big man Yanni Wetzell is particularly good about defending at the rim. Whoever wins this battle puts their team in good position to win the game.
3) Finish the game out
Over recent weeks, San Diego State has had more than a few close calls, especially since their loss to UNLV in Mountain West conference play. The Aztecs are an incredibly talented and dangerous team, but they cannot get comfortable with any kind of lead. SDSU has to play hard until the final buzzer, or this game will slip away from them as it did against Utah State in the Mountain West tournament final. Indiana has been incredibly inconsistent throughout their season. The Hoosiers boast some great wins in Big 10 play, and can definitely hang with and beat the Aztecs, but not without playing a focused, unselfish, and confident ball game.
Game Predictions
Bryan Mauro
Finally, a game in which San Diego State can prove to the doubters that their season was no fluke. Indiana has not been world-beaters by any means but they come from a power conference and have talent enough to make this a game.
Malachi Flynn and Yanni Wetzell are too much in this one. Trayce Jackson-Davis is going to have his hands full on the defensive end with Wetzell. Indiana doesn’t make enough threes and they struggle to score at points. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country. No upset in this one
San Diego State 68, Indiana 55
Joe Weidenburner
SDSU had its share of doubters throughout the year, and although it stumbled late against UNLV and in the MWC tourney against Utah St., this is one of the best teams in the country and has been the entire season. 30-2 is 30-2 no matter the competition, and SDSU racked up wins over Iowa, Creighton, BYU, and twice over Utah St. SDSU ranks 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and historically national title contenders rank very highly in both metrics.
That should be proof enough to any of the detractors that this is a title-worthy team, but in case they still don’t believe, just take a look at Malachi Flynn, Second Team AP All-American and consistently one of the best players in the nation this season, who leads a highly balanced attack that features four players averaging double figures in points per game. Indiana’s season was good, not great, and aside from Trayce Jackson-Davis, no one on the roster scares you. SDSU’s defense will stifle IU’s attack on the interior and IU’s shooting deficiencies will rear their head in a second-half where SDSU pulls away from a 29-29 halftime score to win comfortably.
SDSU 71, Indiana 61
Connor Gilbert
Archie Miller’s Hoosiers have made the most out of their first-ever tournament bid so far after knocking off a seventh-seeded Saint Mary’s team with plenty of upside. Crashing the boards with abandon and speeding up the tempo on offense, IU is a matchup that few teams want right now — ignore the 11th-place finish in-conference, you might not have to wait until next year for Miller’s breakout season in Bloomington. But now’s the roadblock.
San Diego State is on the hunt for the program’s third Sweet Sixteen and first in six years in a year where expectations are elevated. That upset loss to Utah State in the MWC Tourney might have been just the kick the Aztecs needed before a run. They’re still one of the most balanced teams in the country statistically, and if Malachi Flynn has anything to do with it, they’re not going away quite yet.
The entire game will be close throughout, but SDSU will find some separation in the closing minutes to keep the finish from being too exciting.