NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions
East Region (top-half)
(1) Dayton vs. (8) Arizona
Biggest keys
Chesser
1. Balanced Scoring
Lead scorers Obi Toppin for Dayton and Zeke Nnaji for Arizona will be key in this matchup. However, both teams have found success when balanced scoring opportunities are created. Toppin will look for help from Jalen Crutcher, or Trey Landers, and Zeke Nnaji will need support from Nico Mannion and Josh Green.
2. Three-Point Shooting
Dayton loves to make their opponents force shots from behind the three-point arc. If Arizona is able to find success from behind the arc as they have during a few of their regular-season games, Dayton will have to make some defensive adjustments.
3. Free Throws
Arizona has struggled to convert at the free throw line at times, and missed shots have been the difference in the outcome of multiple games this season. Dayton has dominated the free throw line, which has also been a key difference in the outcome of many of their regular-season games. It is very likely that both of these teams see the free throw line quite a bit as a result of a physical matchup.
Vaccaro
The first key to this game is whether or not Arizona can knock down the 3. For the season, that has been one of the strongest parts of their offense as they’ve knocked down 35.2% of their attempts, but there have been times that they’ve gone cold and it has proven costly. 3 point defense happens to be a bit of a weak point for Dayton, which should give U of A a path to find offensive success.
The second key is who wins the rebounding battle. Both of these defenses have been strong throughout the season, but offensive rebounds will create holes in those defenses. If either team can get an edge on the offensive glass, then it should be a huge difference-maker in a game that could turn into a defensive struggle.
The third key is for Dayton to not change their game in this big moment. If they continue to let their offense flow and work through Obi Toppin and Jalen Crutcher, then they should be able to find success on the offensive end. I’ve watched a lot of U of A this year and they’ve struggled against teams that can play an inside-outside game. They can use Toppin to collapse the defense or their shooters to stretch it and whichever one U of A decides to take away, the other will beat them. It’s been a while since Dayton has played a game that truly felt any more meaningful than the rest of their schedule. If the moment doesn’t overwhelm them and they keep doing what they’ve done all season, then their offense should be able to create enough openings throughout this game to get the win.
Game Predictions
Anthony Brown
Dayton took the college basketball world by storm this season led by the unanimous AP First Team All-American Obi Toppin. Dayton’s offense runs through Toppin but the good thing is that the Flyers move the ball very well. That allows them to get others involved instead of becoming one dimensional. Arizona’s strength is in its guard play. Zeke Nnaji, Nico Mannion, and Josh Green lead the Wildcats in scoring. They don’t strike me as a team that can dominate with their frontcourt. Once they get a lead, they keep it by taking and making jump shots. Dayton wins and advances to the Sweet 16. Toppin gets at least 25 points and 10 rebounds.
Dayton 84, Arizona 71
Matthew Travis
Dayton vs. Arizona would be a great match-up as the Flyers are obviously a fantastic team led by Obi Toppin and the Wildcats are a team that has been very overlooked this season and they are better than many people give them credit for. Arizona finished the season ranked 14th in the NET while Dayton finished the season ranked 3rd.
With a 14-10 record against quadrant one and two opponents combined, the Arizona Wildcats definitely have what it takes to upset the Flyers. With a stellar backcourt that consists of Nico Mannion and Josh Green, Arizona could give Dayton a lot of problems with their guard play. Not only do they have Mannion and Green, but Arizona also has Zeke Nnaji who was their leading scorer this season.
Arizona is a really good team and had the PAC-12 Tournament not been canceled they had a very good chance to win it and they would’ve been a higher seed than eighth. Unfortunately for the Wildcats that was not the case and they are tasked with taking on Obi Toppin and the Dayton Flyers in the Round of 32.
As mentioned, Dayton was one of the best teams in the nation during the 2019-20 season as they finished with an overall record of 29-2 and went 18-0 against conference opponents. The Flyers were completely unstoppable and they proved it by finishing the season with a 25-game win streak.
However, without a single ranked win, many were curious to see how Dayton would fare in the NCAA Tournament and Arizona might be a true test for the Flyers. Dayton’s two ranked matchups this season both resulted in losses, one to Kansas by six points who finished the season ranked first in the nation and one to Colorado who finished the season with a record of 21-11.
Ultimately this game is going to come down to whether or not the Wildcats could stop Obi Toppin. If the answer to that is no, then Dayton will win this game handily, if the answer to that is yes, then this game might be a toss-up and the Wildcats could give Dayton their first loss since December.
In the end, I think Dayton gets the job done simply because of how good they have been all season and I don’t see the Wildcats finding a way to stop Obi Toppin.
Dayton 78, Arizona 71
Curtis Wilkerson
This was a much harder pick than I expected honestly. I do believe that Arizona is somewhat undervalued and capable of giving Dayton trouble. The Wildcats are not an 8 seed I would want to run into. Nnaji, Mannion, and Green are a dangerous trio. To add to that, the Flyers breezed through an A-10 conference that is deeper than usual but did not provide an abundance of tests.
With all that in mind, I still have to stick with Dayton here, albeit in a close one. They have legit firepower and the swagger of a Final Four worthy team. Obi Toppin is obviously sensational, but guys like Jalen Crutcher and Trey Landers make the Flyers even more potent.
Dayton 80, Arizona 76
Dayton moves on with a 3-0 win
(4) Butler vs. (12) Yale
Biggest keys
Austin Walther
1. Guard Play
Butler has two guys that average over three assists per game. Aaron Thompson is the lead point guard Butler and isn’t much a three-point shooter. Kamar Baldwin can handle that role and he is a really nice shooter, but he shoots slightly more inside the arch than out. Eric Monroe is a very similar point guard to Thompson. But he’s more of a three-point shooter. Azar Swain is a lethal three-point shooter but isn’t much of a point guard.
2. Rebounding
Yale has a guy Jordan Bruner who leads the team in rebounding at 9.2 per game and is also second on the team in assists. Paul Atkinson is the Bulldogs leading scorer and averages over seven boards per game. Butler has Byrce Nze that averages over six boards as does Sean McDermott, but McDermott also leads the Bulldogs in three-point shooting.
3. Depth
Neither team is all that deep. They both run with the same six guys most of the time. Yale’s top-six guys have played in 28 or more games and Butler’s top-six has played in 27 or more games. They only have one other guy that’s recorded 300 or more minutes this season. It’ll come down to who stays out of foul trouble and what top-six players want it more.
Ben Andreatta
For Yale, take advantage of their size, with Paul Atkinson and Jordan Bruner Yale will need to do what they did all season and pound the ball inside. The more offensive rebounds their frontcourt duo can get the better, creating second-chance points will be big. If Yale can get Butler in foul trouble and get to the line often, Yale should be in a good spot.
For Butler. let Kamar Baldwin work. He has to get going offensively for Butler but he won’t be able to do it himself. Guys like Sean McDermott and Jordan Tucker need to provide an outlet and have a good game. Butler has struggled to overwhelm teams offensively.
For Butler, keep the score low. Butler is one of the best defensive teams in the country if this turns in to a runout game that’s fast-paced and high scoring Butler will be at a big disadvantage. Controlling the tempo is something Butler will need, for Yale, it’s the opposite, Yale needs to push the pace of this game and make Butler uncomfortable offensively.
Herbert Seward
1) Kamar Baldwin, or rather the ability of Yale’s defense to keep him in check. He’s one of those players that has a penchant for big shots in clutch situations, so it’s going to be important for the Bulldogs’ team defensive concept to reflect that.
2) Yale must limit turnovers. The Bulldogs average a hefty 13.0 turnovers per game, with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.2. That doesn’t bode well against a defense that generates a little over 5 steals per game and capitalizes on the scoreboard to the tune of 12 points a game from them. If Yale gives up those freebies, they’re gift-wrapping a win for Butler and placing it neatly on a silver platter.
3) The 3-ball could be a difference-maker for either team. Both Yale and Butler shoot a pretty healthy percentage from behind the arc (37.1% and 34% respectively), and both have players that can really change the course of a game if they’re on target. Both have underrated post games that could benefit from a hot shooting night. The squad that gets off to the best start in that regard, will have a leg up on the outcome of the game.
Game Predictions
Adam Childs
Yale was able to get through the Ivy league on the backs on Paul Atkinson and Azar Swain. Both averaged at least 16 points per game and they also have Jordan Bruner who averaged just under 10 rebounds per game. They attack the glass and are not going to be afraid of the Bulldogs in this one.
Butler started off the season hot but slowed down once they entered the Big East part of their schedule but still showed they could beat very good teams. They have been in a lot of tight games and that could be the difference in this game. They do only have two guys averaging double-figure points in Kamar Baldwin and Sean McDermott. As a team, they are only scoring about 68 points a game, which in case you didn’t know is not a lot.
The good news for Yale as Butler probably can’t run away and hide from them because of their lack of scoring and if they can pressure them into bad shots, they have shown they can control the glass and that will be the difference. Atkinson gets hot and Yale limits Butler’s opportunities and pulls off the big upset to reach the Sweet 16
Yale 65, Butler 63
Jason Belt
In the spirit of March, I could see many people picking a trendy upset here. A borderline 4-seeded Butler team that has been dominant at times, but also struggled mightily at times, against an Ivy League team that the average fan hasn’t spent a lot of time watching. A lot of facts and stats could give the edge to Butler, the team with a more impressive body of work and a very clutch and experienced player in Kamar Baldwin. What’s the fun in that? Yale has two prolific scorers in Azar Swain and Paul Atkinson, can spread the floor, and legitimately have a good shot to knock off Butler. I wouldn’t be surprised if Yale made a late run to upset Butler and move on to the Sweet Sixteen. They would have the crowd behind them and could do something similar to what Oregon did last year (although the Ducks did it against a 13 seed) and make a run at things. Yale in an upset.
Yale 68, Butler 61
Bulldogs vs Bulldogs here, both chosen to advance on sweeps, Butler over North Texas and Yale in a pretty big upset over Auburn. The winner of this game will face the winner of Dayton-Arizona in top-half of the East Region Sweet Sixteen. Both teams didn’t really have the best month coming into the tournament(Feb 15 to the end of the season) with Butler going 3-3 overall and 3-1 against the bottom four teams in their conference, while Yale went 5-2 but lost to Penn and Harvard with the Crimson loss giving Harvard momentum into the canceled Ivy League Tournament.
Now Butler has done well all year against mid-major going 6-0 and winning by at least 18 points, but Yale has been not too shabby against Power-6 schools, losing by a combined 12 points away to Penn State, Oklahoma State and North Carolina team when people still thought they were good in addition to a win at Clemson. If Yale wants to win they will have to abuse Butler in two things that they outclass them the most in, turnovers and 3’s. Yale is 12-1 when scoring more than 10 3’s and Azar Swain will provide the foundation to reach that metric with his Ivy League-leading stats this season in attempts, makes, and percentage. Jordan Bruner will also need a big game as his team is 9-1 when he gets at least 10 rebounds.
Also, Bruner is in the top-10 in the conference for steals and blocks. This is definitely a game Butler can’t go lightly on even if it’s a mid-major matchup, Butler will need to have a big game from their leading scorer Kamar Baldwin if they want a good shot of making the Sweet 16. In the end, the Yale Bulldogs will pick up another rough upset in their sixth overtime game of the season to punch their ticket into their first Sweet Sixteen since 1949 and also become the first Sweet Sixteen from the Ivy League since Cornell in 2010.