Rutgers Basketball: Scarlet Knights primed to overachieve again in 2020-21

Rutgers Basketball had its best season in decades in 2019-20. Based on early projections for next season, the Scarlet Knights look primed to overachieve again.

(Credit to KenPom for statistics and Big Ten Network for GIFS)

The NCAA tournament drought continues for the Rutgers basketball program, which hasn’t gone dancing since 1991. The Scarlet Knights would have undoubtedly received an at-large bid had the tournament not been suspended, however (projected 9 seed per Bracket Matrix).

Fortunately for head coach Steve Pikiell, Rutgers should be able to officially make history in 2020-21. A team that finished 28th, 30th and 29th respectively in KenPom, Barttorvik and Sagarin is only expected to lose one starter in Akwasi Yeboah and a contributor in Shaq Carter.

On top of this, the Scarlet Knights will be bringing in their first top 50 recruit in over a decade. On March 29th, 4-star recruit Cliff Omoruyi (49th-ranked recruit per ESPN) announced his commitment to the program The 6-10 center should give Rutgers another force on the interior alongside Myles Johnson.

Despite all these positive factors, most way-too-early 2020-21 preseason rankings aren’t super bullish on the Scarlet Knights. The majority seem to have them on the outside looking in of the top 25, although some were released before the Omoruyi commitment.

Going forward, any preseason ranking of Rutgers outside the top 25 undervalues what it accomplished this past season. The team’s reputation was hindered by its inability to win away from home (only two road victories), but the Big Ten was super competitive (top conference per KenPom). Not only that, but six of Rutgers’ eight Big Ten road losses also came by six points or less. The team was consistently very competitive.

In the second last game of the season, Rutgers essentially clinched a tournament appearance with a home victory against Maryland. It was the team’s final game, however, one that flew under the radar on a busy Saturday, that signaled just how good Rutgers can be next season.

Geo Baker

The Scarlet Knights went into Mackey Arena and secured their second road victory (other came at Nebraska) against a desperate Purdue team, squeaking out a 71-68 overtime win. The victory was plenty impressive in itself, but it was the performance of one player that was most noteworthy in terms of looking ahead to 2020-21.

I felt Geo Baker was slightly overrated at times this season. Cast as the best player on a team that doesn’t really have one (very balanced), the junior wasn’t very efficient as a scorer. Averaging 10.9 points per game, Baker’s respectable 49.4% shooting on two’s was offset by an ugly 28.0% from three on 4.5 attempts per game.

This season, only 24 players attempted >=4.5 threes per game, made <=28.0% and played at least 20 games. Only six high-major players made the list: Austin Reaves (Oklahoma), Markell Johnson (North Carolina State), Prentiss Nixon (Iowa State), Both Gach (Utah), Eric Ayala (Maryland) and Baker. 

Baker showed great flashes of go-to scoring ability, however, none better than his performance down the stretch vs. Purdue. He didn’t settle for outside shots and got one big bucket after another, scoring 13 of his 19 points in the second half and overtime. He happened to be hot from downtown as well (3-4), allowing Rutgers fans to see his full offensive arsenal.

Baker likely won’t turn into an uber-efficient scorer by next season, but if he can improve a bit beyond the arc, he could be the driving force that elevates Rutgers from a borderline top 25 team to a top 15-20 team. Perhaps his performance against the Boilermakers provided some sort of breakthrough.

Ron Harper, who actually led the Scarlet Knights in scoring at 12.1 points per game, has some go-to scorer potential of his own. Shooting 51.3% from two and 35.2% from three, the efficiency is already there. With Akwasi Yeboah graduating, Harper should increase his usage, and if both Baker and Harper can take steps forward, Rutgers should be in business.

Other Contributors

Steve Pikiell used a lot of players (55th in bench minutes), which inevitably lead to scoring statistics being spread thin across the roster. Baker and Harper were the two double-digit scorers, with five players averaging between five and nine points: Yeboah, Jacob Young, Myles Johnson, Montez Mathis and Caleb McConnell. It’s possible the low scoring averages have led to each of Young, Mathis and McConnell being a bit underrated as scorers. Mathis, in particular, is capable of emerging as a solid third option.

Besides the obvious disappointment that came with the tournament cancellation, Rutgers fans have to be thrilled with how the season went. The team will be a consensus pick to make the tournament next season, but it’s possible prognosticators are still selling the Scarlet Knights short.