Houston Basketball: Nate Hinton departure lowers 2020-21 ceiling

Houston Basketball will be moving forward without guard Nate Hinton, who has decided to sign with an agent and remain in the 2020 NBA Draft.

If Houston Basketball is going to make a dream run to the Final Four in 2021, they will have to do so without the services of Nate Hinton. After throwing his name in the draft waters at the beginning of the offseason, the guard announced Monday that he will be signing with an agent, officially forgoing the remainder of his college eligibility.

The impact of this loss is enormous for Kelvin Sampson and his Cougars. As a sophomore, Hinton averaged 10.6 points per game, shooting 38.7 percent from three. Arguably his biggest contribution to the team was on the boards. Despite standing at just 6-foot-5, Hinton averaged 8.7 rebounds per game, leading the team and finishing fourth in the AAC. He also led the Cougars with 1.4 steals per game.

Hinton might not be the only significant loss in the guard rotation for Houston. The program is still waiting on a final decision from rising senior guard DeJon Jarreau, who also threw his name in the draft pool at the end of the season; he has not yet decided whether or not he will withdraw from the professional process.

With almost everyone returning from last year’s co-AAC championship team, expectations were high for Houston, with sights set on a potential top ten preseason ranking. That’s still a possibility, but the loss of Hinton could lower the team’s ceiling as they attempt to reach the Final Four for the first time in 37 years.

Sampson will still be relying heavily on his guards in 2020-21. Caleb Mills is coming off a phenomenal freshman season, when he led the team with 13.2 points per game. Quentin Grimes was also as good as advertised after transferring over from Kansas, averaging 12.1 points per game despite struggling from three-point range (32.6 percent).

In the frontcourt, the only returnee who played regular minutes last season is Fabian White Jr., who averaged 9.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. He should improve during his senior season, but without a three-point shot, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be the focus of much defensive game planning next season, unlike the guards.

Houston does have the second-best AAC recruiting class coming in next season according to 247 Sports. But like everything with the Cougars, it is led by guards, as point guards Tramon Mark and Jamal Shead lead the class. With a possible breakout from rising sophomore guard Marcus Sasser forthcoming, Sampson has to at least be dreaming about a world of positionless basketball, where he could play five competent guards at once.

The Memphis Tigers are the only team that has a decent chance of challenging Houston for the AAC title next season. Their ability to do so will likely depend on whether DeAndre Williams gains instant eligibility for the Tigers and whether or not Jarreau returns to the Cougars.

Regardless, Houston is still in position to win the AAC. Unfortunately, they may not be in a position to make a deep NCAA Tournament run without Nate Hinton.