Stanford Basketball: Potential impact of Tyrell Terry’s impending decision

Stanford basketball is still waiting on an NBA Draft decision from point guard Tyrell Terry. How could a return impact the Cardinal for this coming year?

NBA Draft decisions are some of the most influential choices of every single college basketball offseason. With many underclassmen electing to leave each year, it is hard to determine which programs will be poised for strong years as there is uncertainty regarding whether particular stars will be back at the collegiate level. With regard to the current 2020 offseason, Stanford basketball’s Tyrell Terry is among those still on the fence about potentially returning to school.

Terry, a 6-foot-1 guard, was rated as a Top 150 prospect out of high school but immediately exceeded that ranking upon taking the court in Palo Alto. He started every single game for Stanford as a freshman and posted excellent averages of 14.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. He made his mark in just about every area and was impressively efficient as a scorer with shooting splits of .441/.408/.891.

Terry is very intelligent as an offensive player and gets to his spots quite well. While not the most athletic lead guard, he is among the best shooters not only at his position but in the entire 2020 draft class. He was surprisingly adept at finishing around the rim during this past season with nifty ball-handling and aggressive attacking of close-outs.

Efficient shot selection is an essential trait in the modern NBA and Terry definitely brings that to the court. He doesn’t boast an elite frame but his film speaks for itself – he’s a dynamite player. Looking ahead to his draft stock, it is easy to envision a team selecting him in the first round. After all, perimeter shooting is paramount to success in the NBA and he is among the best available this summer. He is also still quite young with plenty of room for his game, and frame, to expand.

At the moment, though, Terry’s projected draft slot ranges from the middle of the first round all the way down into the second round. Without any pre-draft workouts to impress and potentially receive a guarantee, the talented guard is left with a big decision to make: will he return to Stanford for his sophomore season or take the leap and head to the NBA?

With that decision still looming, let’s take a look at how his choice will impact Stanford for next season.

Where would Stanford rank with Terry?

Quite simply, Stanford would be a lock to be ranked in the preseason Top 25, possibly the Top 15, next season if Terry returns. The Cardinal would be returning each of their top six scorers from a 20-12 (9-9 P12) season that left them hanging around the bubble before the cancelation of the NCAA Tournament. It is also worth mentioning that four of those top six offensive weapons were underclassmen last season.

Considering how successful this group was while extremely young, it is reasonable to think that the team could take a jump by “running it back” with a more experienced version of the same group. In addition to that strong returning core, Stanford is also bringing in a five-star recruit in Ziaire Williams. A 6-foot-8 wing ranked at No. 5 in the recruiting class, Williams will add even more talent and versatility to the Cardinal’s roster.

In this scenario, the likes of Terry, Williams, and Oscar Da Silva would likely be the stars of the roster with veteran Daejon Davis and sharpshooting sophomore Spencer Jones filling out the starting lineup. Bryce Wills and Jaiden Delaire would then be the top reserves and you would be hard-pressed to find many top sevens more talented than that in the country.

Where would Stanford rank without Terry?

Without Terry in the rotation, Stanford could still be projected around the Top 25 for next season. The Cardinal would still be returning five of their top six scorers while bringing in a “one-and-done” type freshman on the wing. That is more than enough talent for Coach Haase to work with. This team ranked seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency last season and Williams is well-known as a versatile stopper on that end. The Cardinal would likely remain defensively elite.

There would be a major concern, however, regarding their point guard play. Leadership at that spot hugely important in college hoops and losing Terry’s impact there would be difficult to overcome. Stanford would have a few options to fill the role, with the most-likely being deploying a rotation featuring a little less shooting but more size. That wouldn’t simply make up for Terry’s loss, though.

Terry is already a proven commodity, and Stanford would need big leaps from the likes of Spencer Jones and Bryce Wills in order to remain a contender for the Pac-12 title without him. His departure would also raise the expectation level for Williams to be a star from the opening tip of his collegiate career, something that can be daunting for a freshman (even a five-star).

Stanford will be talented enough to be a very good team even without Terry, but it won’t have enough firepower to be a dark-horse national title contender. If the talented guard decides to come back for his sophomore year, though, the Cardinal could be among the scariest teams in the country. They would still rank among the nation’s best defensive teams, could light it up from beyond the arc, and would be more experienced than this past season.