Marquette Basketball: DJ Carton deemed immediately eligible for 2020-21

Marquette Basketball received some positive news on Wednesday when Ohio State transfer DJ Carton was granted a waiver to play immediately in 2020-21.

How does Jon Rothstein put it? “College basketball. Where the not-so-secretly expected becomes reality?” No, that’s not quite it. Regardless, on Wednesday, Marquette Basketball announced that its incoming transfer guard DJ Carton was deemed immediately eligible to play in 2020-21 by the NCAA.

While no one knew for sure, there was always a quiet expectation that Carton would be granted a waiver after he missed the last 10 games with Ohio State due to mental health reasons. With the official announcement now in hand, head coach Steve Wojciechowski can now go forward with a clearer roster plan for the 2020-21 season (though everything else regarding the 2020-21 campaign remains as murky as ever).

The immediate addition of Carton looms large in the analytics as well. Without Carton, T-Rank’s preseason projection system slotted Marquette at 98th in the nation, just ahead of Georgetown in the basement of the Big East. But now that Carton is in the fold, Marquette’s national projection shoots up to 70th. That’s still not great, but it at least puts the Golden Eagles within shouting distance of the Big East’s middle tier that features Providence, Xavier, Butler, and St. John’s. Marquette is likely in line for a .500ish campaign with an NIT berth in play. A potential NCAA tournament bubble-worthy season is a possibility if everything breaks right.

Let’s quickly highlight the current Marquette roster, along with the individual 2019-20 stat lines:

Guards

• DJ Carton, SO (10.4 ppg, 3.0 apg)
• Koby McEwen, RS SR (9.5 ppg, 3.2 apg)
• Greg Elliott, RS JR (5.1 ppg, 1.3 apg)
• Symir Torrence, SO (1.8 ppg, 1.6 apg)
• Dexter Akanno, RS FR (redshirted in 2019-20)

Forwards

• Dawson Garcia, FR (no. 31 recruit via 247Sports)
• Oso Ighodaro, FR (no. 73 recruit via 247Sports)
• Justin Lewis, FR (no. 107 recruit via 247Sports)
• Jamal Cain, SR (5.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg)

Bigs

• Theo John, SR (5.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg)

Transfers

• Jose Perez, RS JR (15.2 ppg, 4.2 apg – expected to sit out 2020-21 as a traditional transfer, but did miss the final 10 games due to personal reasons last year, so a waiver may remain in the cards)

The newly eligible Carton will likely slide in next to McEwen in the starting backcourt, soaking up a large portion of responsibility left behind by the graduating Markus Howard in the process. Here is a snippet of what I wrote back in April when Carton officially committed to the Golden Eagles:

"On the court, Carton is an ideal fit for a Marquette roster that appeared light in the backcourt sans Howard and Sacar Anim. The Iowa native had a near-perfect shot chart as a freshman, as nearly 80 percent of his attempts came at the rim or behind the three-point line. Carton connected on 66 percent of his looks at the basket, which will be a welcome addition to a Marquette team that collectively struggled to score inside the paint.He also knocked down 40 percent of his three-point attempts, albeit on a relatively small sample size (he averaged just three treys per game). Carton does not have anywhere near the off-the-dribble shooting chops of Howard – no one does – but he is still a competent shooter with room to grow. The Golden Eagles have consistently finished towards the top of the Big East in three-point attempts and three-point percentage over the past four seasons; part of that comes with the territory for a Howard-led roster, but when every role player is also launching treys at an impressive rate, it’s clear that long-range bombs are part of Wojo’s identity. Expect Carton to take and make more threes in a Marquette uniform."

You can read that full piece here.

Nailing down Marquette’s exact lineup is tough, especially with a potential Perez waiver still floating around, but the near-certainties on Opening Night would seem to be Carton and McEwen in the backcourt, and John as the five-man. Highly-touted freshman Dawson Garcia is likely the leading candidate to start at the four as well.

That leaves one wing spot available – which presumably would have gone to Brendan Bailey had he not decided to pursue professional opportunities – with which Wojo can go in a variety of directions. Elliott is an option in a smaller lineup, which would likely require the sturdier McEwen to guard bigger wings in that three-guard set. The 6-foot-7 Cain might be the favorite to grab that opening, but with his iffy lateral quickness, he has proven to be more adept at guarding fours than threes. Even though Carton rated out well defensively last season, there are a host of defensive questions on the perimeter with this group. Unless McEwen or Elliott make the leap as a lockdown defender, John may see attacking guards flying at him with uncomfortable regularity.

One lineup I would be interested in seeing, even if it doesn’t solve any of those previous defensive issues: Torrence-Carton-McEwen-Garcia-John. Torrence, a former four-star recruit who reclassified to join last year’s roster, showed preternatural passing ability as a freshman. He clearly possesses advanced vision and wants to set up his teammates. And among high-major freshmen to play at least 25 percent of their team’s minutes, Torrence was one of only 13 players to finish with an assist rate north of 25 percent. One of the other names on that list? DJ Carton.

McEwen himself finished with a 21 percent assist rate last year (sixth among returning Big East starters), and John has even flashed a burgeoning passing skillset from the post. This is a group that should thrive in transition, and whip the ball around the floor in a half-court setting. Garcia seems to have more of a score-first mentality, but playing with three guards who can move the ball should be the perfect runway into college hoops for the McDonald’s All-American. (Of course, that passing trio might also succumb to turnover-itis, but the upside seems too tantalizing to pass up.)

At a bare minimum, Carton raises the level of preseason expectations in Milwaukee from “yikes” to ” well… maybe.” This is still a team that must answer some real questions – in a pandemic, no less – but even if the 2020-21 season results in zero tournament wins for the eighth straight year, at least the foundation will be set for a positive 2021-22 campaign.