NCAA Basketball: Most overhyped power conference teams for 2020-21
Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers return all but one player from a 21-win campaign where they captured a Big Ten Co-Championship along with Michigan State and Maryland. That’s really good news. An 8-game win streak to close the year made that all possible as Wisconsin led the league in 3-point shooting during that stretch and for the season, hitting about nine threes per game. That’s two per game more than the prior season where they finished 9th in the Big Ten in 3-Point Shooting.
The perimeter shot was a big reason that Greg Gard’s team overachieved in 2019-20. The concerning piece of this is that they ranked last in the conference in 2-point makes and ranked 8th in 2-point percentage and were ranked 286th in America in points scored. So, despite the ability to shoot the deep ball effectively, they had one of the worst scoring offenses in the country.
If they cannot shoot the three as they did a season ago, and they probably won’t, they are going to be in big trouble. To further the point of why it will be difficult to repeat that performance, the lone defunct from the roster, Brevin Pritzil (8.0 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.7 Ast) made 20% of those 3s, second-best on the team. This is the reason that Wisconsin looks overhyped to me, projected between #10 and #20 in the country in most early polls.
Yes, the core or of Nate Reuvers (8.0 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.7 Ast), D’Mitrik Trice, Brad Davison, Aleem Ford, Micah Potter as well as a top 5 Big Ten freshman class sounds good. However, last season’s offensive numbers are hardly that of a top 20 team and it is irresponsible to not mention those stats when talking about the Badgers.
It also would be wrong to ignore the fact that Wisconsin’s defense is one of the best in college basketball year in and year out, including last season. They ranked 1st in the Big Ten in scoring defense and that is the reason they are able to get by with such below-average offensive numbers. Because of the defense, led by Reuvers and Potter’s combined three blocks per game, the Badgers are in every game they play, and since they are well coached by Gard, they win a lot of those. But the margin for error is low and a 326th national ranking on 2-point shot makes is not going to cut it if that 3-point percentage doesn’t persist.
Returning a lot of guys is great, but I am not going to throw a party for any team because of it. Wisconsin has concerning flaws and it doesn’t matter how good your defense is if you cannot score. In the three-seasons preceding 2019-20 Wisconsin was 8th, 11th, and 10th in the Big Ten in 3-point shots made. It’s just not what Wisconsin typically does and if they don’t replicate it or find a way to improve the offense, they are far from a top 25 basketball team and potentially the most over-hyped team in the nation heading into 2020-21.