Virginia Basketball: Comparing dominant 3PT defense with the Toronto Raptors

Why opponents shoot so poorly?

In a Virginia-like fashion, the Toronto Raptors have not only had the best 3PT% defense in the NBA this season but have done so while ALSO allowing opponents to shoot threes at a league-high rate (rank 2nd overall defensively).

Whereas Virginia has managed to replicate this style of defensive success for seasons now, it’s only the Raptors’ first operating at this level (smaller sample size). It’s worth noting, however, that it’s only head coach Nick Nurse’s second season at the helm. In the years to come, perhaps Toronto will continue overcoming “3PT% randomness” and become the “Virginia” of the NBA.

Regardless, given that their profiles look so similar this season, it’s worth exploring the success of both squads. While Tony Bennett’s defensive powerhouse remains incomprehensible at times, his masterful pack-line defense has been analyzed for years now. A few things tend to come up as explanations for the consistent success of Virginia’s 3PT% defense.

Over the years, Bennett and his staff have perfectly implemented the pack line and gotten players to buy in; the philosophy runs through the veins of the program. This defense focuses on preventing dribble penetration and protecting the interior, utilizing double teams as one method to do so. With opponents finding it so difficult to score inside the arc (6th-best 2P% last season), they are often “forced” to resort to 3-pointers. This partially explains why Virginia’s opponents attempt so many threes.

But why have Virginia’s opponents shot so poorly from downtown? If one temporarily puts aside the idea that 3PT% defense is “random,” wouldn’t allowing more 3-pointers generally lead to more open threes (and a worse 3PT% defense)?

1. “Forced” 3-pointers might not always be the most efficient (or comfortable) for opposing offenses.

2. Cavaliers’ opponents really struggle to generate shots, often shooting late in the shot clock. Virginia’s opponents had the 3rd longest average possession length of any NCAA team last season. With the shot clock running down, these already “forced” 3-pointers can become especially forced, and therefore even less efficient.

3. Although the interior focus of the pack line leads to a lot of opponent 3PT attempts, Virginia excels at recovering to close out on shooters. Below, Ty Jerome helps off his man (stunting). Although this temporarily leaves a shooter open, Jerome quickly recovers to close out on the shot.

4. Every coach schools his team on which opposing players are capable shooters (and which aren’t). Although it’s difficult to assess statistically, it’s possible Virginia simply executes these scouting reports better than other teams (letting worse shooters fire away).

5. Could “luck” be involved to some degree, with opponents simply missing threes they should be making? On the margins, of course, but Virginia’s elite 3PT defenses season after season suggests this can’t be relied upon as a significant explanation.

But what can explain this season’s defensive 3PT% performance from the Toronto Raptors? Does the team mirror Virginia in any ways? Or with a sample size of only one season, is luck the most likely explanation in this case? Thankfully, The NBA has plenty of publicly available data (more so than NCAAB) to help answer these questions.