NCAA Basketball: Will Duke and Gonzaga remain at top of in 2020-21?

Duke and Gonzaga have both performed very well the last few NCAA Basketball seasons, particularly per KenPom’s analytics rankings. Will this continue in 2020-21?

With the NCAA Tournament’s cancellation, the best teams in the sport didn’t get the chance to reach any postseason milestones (Final Four, national championship, etc.). NCAA basketball fans were forced to resort to rankings like KenPom to assess the top teams of 2019-20.

(Credit to KenPom for rankings, ESPN for Bracketology and CBS, ESPN, Yahoo and NCAA for preseason rankings)

KenPom Top 5: 2019-20

1. Kansas

2. Gonzaga

3. Baylor

4. Dayton 

5. Duke

This got me thinking…going back to 2001-02 (beginning of KenPom database), which programs have had the longest “top five in KenPom” streaks? There have been 18 runs of at least two consecutive top-five seasons. Kansas and Duke have three, while North Carolina and Florida each have two.

Only four schools have finished top five in KenPom three consecutive seasons, and only one – Villanova – has done so four straight times, a run that included two national championships.

It’s unclear how both Gonzaga and Duke would have faired in the 2019-20 NCAA Tournament, but with their top five KenPom finishes, they are the two programs with existing streaks. In 2020-21, the Bulldogs will look to be the sixth team to finish in the top five for at least three consecutive seasons, and the Blue Devils will be vying to tie Villanova’s streak of four.

What are the chances Gonzaga and Duke extend their streaks? There’s still some time before the season begins (start date remains unclear), but early preseason rankings can provide a sense of the expectations for these programs heading into 2020-21.

Gonzaga

With an average preseason ranking of 2.0 (range 1-3), Gonzaga appears to be well-positioned for another high KenPom finish. Despite losing Flip Petrusev, returning Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi, and Drew Timme while adding a 5-star prospect in Jalen Suggs should make Mark Few’s squad a legitimate championship contender.

Duke

With an average preseason ranking of 8.2 (range 6-11), Duke will have to perform a bit above expectations to extend its KenPom streak. But although Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore Jr. are the team’s only two notable returning contributors, the Blue Devils will have plenty of young talent.

Duke’s incoming freshmen class includes three 5-star recruits in Jalen Johnson, Jeremy Roach, and D.J. Steward (13th, 19th, 25th respectively in ESPN100) and three 4-stars in Jaemyn Brakefield, Mark Williams, and Henry Coleman III (31st, 32nd, 54th). Duke’s lower preseason rankings are likely driven by the uncertainty of how these newcomers will perform, but the team clearly has the ceiling of a top-five KenPom team.

Conclusion

While Gonzaga should be primed for a third straight top-five KenPom finish, Duke will have to exceed expectations a bit and have its freshmen perform from the get-go. But what are the chances 2019-20’s other three top-five KenPom teams (Kansas, Baylor, Dayton) make it two in a row this upcoming season?

Dayton: The Flyers won’t be nearly the same team after losing Obi Toppin and are currently projected for the “Next Four Out.”

Baylor: With Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell returning, the Bears are a consensus preseason top 2-3 team. Similar to Gonzaga, Baylor missed out on a chance for postseason success last season and is fully capable of a top-five KenPom finish.

Kansas: Despite losing Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike, the Jayhawks return a solid core of Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, David McCormack, and Christian Braun. The squad also adds two notable newcomers in 5-star Bryce Thompson (29th in ESPN100) and Tyon Grant-Foster, one of the top junior college players last season.

Given that Kansas is a projected 2-seed and its preseason rankings range from 5-8, the program’s 4th “top five KenPom streak” is definitely a feasible outcome (Kansas and Duke currently tied for the most at three).