Providence Basketball: Friars’ David Duke poised as Big East’s breakout star

Amongst a host of breakout candidates in the Big East, Providence Basketball junior David Duke has as good a chance as any to become an all-conference star.

Selecting the Big East’s 2020-21 breakout star certainly does not involve a lack of options. Because only two of last year’s all-conference honorees return to campus, nearly everyone in the league will be given additional responsibility this year. No, seriously – almost every team is losing its top offensive option(s), at least in terms of usage rate:

• Butler: Kamar Baldwin (29.9 percent usage rate), Jordan Tucker (22.2 percent)
• UConn: Christian Vital (25.9 percent)
• Georgetown: Mac McClung (29 percent), Omer Yurtseven (27.6 percent)
• Marquette: Markus Howard (37.3 percent)
• Providence: Alpha Diallo (25.9 percent)
• Seton Hall: Myles Powell (33.6 percent), Quincy McKnight (21.9 percent)
• St. John’s: Mustapha Heron (25.6 percent), LJ Figueroa (25.4 percent)
• Xavier: Naji Marshall (26.6 percent), Tyrique Jones (25.5 percent)

Only Villanova, Creighton, and DePaul return the player who soaked up the most possessions for them a year ago, but even those programs lost Saddiq Bey, Ty-Shon Alexander, and Paul Reed, three of the Big East’s most dynamic two-way pieces from 2019-20.

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Coaches are going to be turning to some new names to step into larger roles. The candidate list is lengthy, but one rising star who is poised to become a household name is Providence’s junior David Duke.

Duke, a Providence native who stayed at home to attend PC, flourished as a sophomore with the Friars, improving both his raw per-game numbers and percentages across the board. For the year, Duke averaged 12 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, and 1.5 steals a night.

His shooting spike paid big dividends for a Friar program that is seemingly always light on shooting. After shooting just 30 percent from three and 69 percent from the free throw line as a freshman, Duke bumped those numbers up to 42 percent and 79 percent, respectively, in year two. The improvement in his free throw percentage is a good sign for the sustainability of his three-point mark. The near-80 free throw percentage will also give Duke more confidence to attack the rim and get to the stripe, something the Friars will need in 2020-21 without Alpha Diallo, who consistently put pressure on the defense inside.

Duke has the foundation for a nice offensive arsenal, as he has shown the ability to step outside and take it to the rim. At 6-foot-5 with a long wingspan, there aren’t a ton of guards in the Big East who can match up with Duke’s size. He is also a willing passer, posting nearly a 20 percent assist rate a year ago. Duke finished among the leading Friars in nearly every offensive category last season, and with several key PCers graduating, Ed Cooley and co. will be looking towards Duke to grab the reigns full-time.

The next steps involve eliminating some of his midrange attempts, where he took nearly a quarter of his shots but converted just 28 percent. That means either upping his three-point attempts, including off-the-dribble treys or continuing to slither towards the rim and draw fouls. Cutting down the turnovers would also be welcomed, though Duke was relatively strong with the ball during Providence’s season-ending six-game winning streak (just 1.5 giveaways per game).

Of course, the offensive end tells just part of the story for Duke. He ranks second among returning Big East players in defensive box plus-minus (3.4, right behind Marquette’s Theo John), and possesses the versatility to guard top perimeter scorers across the conference. His length also allows him to stuff the stat sheet on that end of the floor as a defensive rebounder, a pilfer in the passing lanes, and a weak-side shot blocker.

He is a legitimate preseason Defensive Player of the Year candidate and is a dark-horse to grab the Big East Player of the Year award. Providence is no stranger to the POY/DPOY double-dip; Kris Dunn pulled it off in consecutive years in 2014-15 and 2015-16, and Duke enters this season with a stronger collegiate track record than Dunn did prior to his award binge.

Among the middle tier of the Big East – a group that likely includes Providence, Seton Hall, UConn, Xavier, St. John’s Marquette, and potentially Butler – the Friars could be the best equipped to scare Villanova and Creighton atop the conference, but only if Duke officially makes the leap to stardom.