Bracketology 2021: Early observations heading into 2020-21 season

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /

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RICHMOND, VA – JANUARY 25: Nick Sherod #5 of the Richmond Spiders drives past Ibi Watson #2 of the Dayton Flyers (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /

How mid-majors can navigate this unique season

As previously said, the lower-tier mid-major conference programs are once again at the mercy of the heavyweights and whatever small events they can get invited to. We’ve seen news of some teams making announcements to be involved with new bubble events, guaranteeing themselves some non-conference games.

But in terms of Bracketology, those kinds of teams are already in one-bid league scenarios, so what happens in the conference tournaments in March will ultimately decide their fates. It’s different for the upper-tier leagues such as the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, Conference USA, and WCC, who all have gotten multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament in recent seasons.

Gonzaga of the WCC is the exception to this, as the preseason top-3 overall team already has the Orlando Invitational, Jimmy V Classic, and a matchup with fellow top-3 team Baylor. The others, including Saint Mary’s and BYU, aren’t as fortunate. The same goes for the other preseason at-large contenders such as Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Saint Louis, and Richmond.

One official consequence so far has been the cancellation of the Atlantic 10/Mountain West Challenge, which has been pushed off for next year. The hope for these programs is that they can find at least 2-3 top-100 caliber matchups somewhere between Nov 25 and Dec 25, where most conferences have determined will be their respective start of league play.

One thing that is even more important… not losing bad games. There just aren’t more opportunities to offset those resume killers. Also, some of these teams may have to go 16-2 or 15-3 in their conferences to warrant at-large bids, which also will depend on the college strength of the conference. We’ve seen mid-major at-large bids swindle in the past decade and this year could be even more detrimental.

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