Bracketology 2021: Early observations heading into 2020-21 season

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /

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LOUISVILLE, KY – FEBRUARY 19: Head coach Jim Boeheim of the Syracuse Orange (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

What life could look like on the bubble for power conference teams

Now, the mid-majors are going to find it difficult to warrant an at-large bid, which automatically will benefit the power conference teams. However, the unique circumstances of this season can be problematic for them as well, in one major way in particular.

I wouldn’t call it a “dirty trick” as much as a strategy that some coaches do play as many “cupcakes” and bad teams as possible to rack of wins in the con-conference and do just good enough in league lay to warrant a bid.

A hypothetical example would be NC State of the ACC. They go 10-1 in the non-conference and beat no one in the top-75 overall. Then they go 9-11 in league play, including a win over Duke and Virginia to improve their metrics and sneak into the NCAA Tournament as a 10 or 11 seed.

This time around, the Wolfpack may only have 5-7 games in the non-conference to work with before a 20-game ACC schedule. That’s a double-edged sword, as they may not play anyone of note. It puts a ton of pressure on having not only a quality league performance but also be at least .500. The Selection Committee may not pick an NC State team that goes 15-12 overall in the regular season unless a number of those wins are against Duke, UNC, or Virginia.

Would a 16-12 NC State team get over say a San Deigo State that goes 24-5 and dominates the Mountain West? It’s impossible to know how the Selection Committee will operate with less info this time around but it’s important that these teams separate themselves with great wins. Otherwise, mediocre resumes without being bloated with cupcake wins might not get it done this time.

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