Big Ten Basketball: 5 bold predictions for 2020-21 season

Luka Garza will average over 30 points per game

In the spirit of full disclosure, stats that are sensitive to games played have the potential to be slightly skewed during an abbreviated season like the one we are expecting Big Ten teams to play this season. When it comes to the Consensus All-American, Luka Garza’s great performances will heavily outweigh his poor ones.

All the signs point to Garza not only scoring over 30 points a game but having the highest scoring average in the NCAA since Rick Mount averaged 35.4 points per game for the Purdue Boilermakers during the 1969-70 season.

In 2019-20  Garza averaged 23.9 points in 32 minutes per game while connecting on 59 percent of the 13.6 two-point fields he attempted per game. This season, Iowa Basketball’s rotation will be even more centered on Garza as they become the Big Ten’s most efficient offense.

Four of Garza’s five 30 point performances came against Big Ten foes, a feat that will be easier with the top four players in defensive win shares no longer in the conference in Xavier Tillman, Jalen Smith, Daniel Oturu, and Kaleb Wesson, not to mention 7-foot Jon Teske will not be guarding the paint for Michigan either. Garza averaged 26.2 points per game in Big Ten play, with only Nebraska holding him under 20 points in a game.

With the lack of paint protection in the Big Ten this season, Garza will be getting to the free-throw line more than last season, when four of his six games with 10 or more free-throw attempts came against Big Ten opponents.

With his already established success and Big Ten games making up a larger portion of the schedule, Garza will not only surpass his 60 percent from two-point range as a freshman, but he will also average over17 two-point attempts per game to squeak by a 30-point average.